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327968

Bayesian GLS Identification of Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Article

Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

In this article, a new Bayesian approach is used to identify the autoregressive moving average models. Employing approximation error is the foundation of the suggested Bayesian methodology. We take into consideration presence of an approximation error when  substituting lagged errors of the original autoregressive moving average model with suitably lagged residuals from along autoregression . The direct Bayesian identification approach is utilized for solving the Bayesian identification issue of autoregressive moving average processes  employing both informative and non-informative priors. The theoretical derivations of the direct Bayesian identification approach are carried out utilizing the aforementioned priors. We compare the effectiveness of the Broemeling and Shaarawy approach with proposed Bayesian approach for determining the orders of autoregressive moving average models by utilizing an actual data set and numerous simulated experiments. The outcomes  of simulations and actual data demonstrate  that the suggested approach is superior to the Broemeling and Shaarawy approach for determining the orders of autoregressive moving average processes.

DOI

10.21608/caf.2023.327968

Keywords

Autoregressive Moving Average Models, Generalized Least Squares (GLS) Approach, Approximate Error, Prior Distribution, Posterior Distribution, Bayesia

Authors

First Name

Howaida

Last Name

Elsayed

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia.

Email

helsayed@kku.edu.sa

City

Egypt

Orcid

0000-0003-1323-5346

Volume

43

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

45516

Issue Date

2023-12-01

Receive Date

2023-07-29

Publish Date

2023-12-01

Page Start

203

Page End

224

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_327968.html

Detail API

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=327968

Order

327,968

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Bayesian GLS Identification of Autoregressive Moving Average Models

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024