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328007

A Parametric Five State Progression Model: Estimation and Application

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Multi-state models (MSMs) are an extension of classical survival analysis, which allows adjustment to the prediction of survival duration of the patient in the course of time by incorporating new information regarding the progression of the medical history and to better understand how prognostic factors influence the different phases of the disease/recovery process. In recent years, a wide range of medical situations have been modelled using MSMs such as problems following lung transplantation, problems following heart transplantation, hepatic cancer, HIV infection and AIDS. Disease progression model is needed for understanding the progression of disease and important in retrospective cohort analyses. In this paper five states progression model is suggested. The suggested model is studied in the case of continuous time non-homogeneous multistate model based on non-homogeneous Markov processes. A parametric time-dependent multistate model are considered to fit a non-homogeneous Markov process where transitions are specified by the hazard of exponential and Weibull distribution. The parameters of the suggested models are estimated by ML method. An application using dataset containing histories of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) from lung transplant recipients is applied using the suggested models. The BOS data set is provided in the R package msm.

DOI

10.21608/caf.2023.328007

Keywords

Markov processes, Non-Markov processes, Interval-censored, Staged progression model, Parametric multi-state models

Authors

First Name

Ayat Ahmed Mohani

Last Name

Abdel Tawab

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Assistant lecturer in the Statistics Department, Faculty of Commerce, Al-Azhar University, Girls Branch, Cairo

Email

mohamedmhany7@gmail.com

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First Name

Mervat Mahmoud

Last Name

Al-Gohary

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Professor of Statistics - Faculty of Commerce Al-Azhar University - Girls Branch Cairo

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Nahid Mohamed

Last Name

Helmy

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Professor of Statistics - Faculty of Commerce Al-Azhar University - Girls Branch Cairo

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Volume

43

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

45516

Issue Date

2023-12-01

Receive Date

2023-08-29

Publish Date

2023-12-01

Page Start

143

Page End

188

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_328007.html

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https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=328007

Order

328,007

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

A Parametric Five State Progression Model: Estimation and Application

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024