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319866

Hybrid Model "ARIMA -ANN" Using for forecasting Stock Index EGX30

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Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

   This research aims to evaluate the efficiency of Hybrid model ARIMA-ANN in forecasting by Stock market Index EGX30 since 3/1/2022 to 9/1/2022. In this research discussion  three models which are Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) , Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and  the Hybrid model (ARIMA-ANN) , while ARIMA(0,1,1) has been used to estimate the linear Part of Model ,then Estimating the Non- linear Part of Model by the difference between Actual data and Estimated data of series, so the model of ANN (2,5,1) has been used to estimate the non-linear part of  the model and by collecting the two Parts for getting finally the hybrid model for forecasting Processing , After comparing three models and based on standard group such as Mean Square Error (MSE) , Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ,We achieved that " the Hybrid model (ARIMA-ANN) was the best model in forecasting by stock index EGX30 and it is better than ARIMA (0,1,1) and ANN (2,5,1) which did singularly ,that is because Hybrid Model has the minimum accurately  values of forecasting standards 

DOI

10.21608/caf.2023.319866

Keywords

Forecasting, Stock Index EGX30, hybrid model, ARIMA, ANN

Authors

First Name

mohamed

Last Name

el-malky

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of commerce, Tanta University

Email

mohamed.elmalky@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

tanta

Orcid

-

First Name

maie

Last Name

kamel

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of commerce, Tanta University

Email

maie.kamel@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0000000276505844

First Name

wagdi

Last Name

abdelnabi

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of commerce, Tanta University

Email

wagdi.abdelnabi@commerce.tanta.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

43

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

43760

Issue Date

2023-09-01

Receive Date

2023-06-03

Publish Date

2023-09-01

Page Start

352

Page End

379

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_319866.html

Detail API

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=319866

Order

319,866

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Hybrid Model "ARIMA -ANN" Using for forecasting Stock Index EGX30

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024