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384971

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LUBRICANTS DEMAND FORECASTING

Article

Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Lubricants play a crucial role in various industries such as automotive, manufacturing, and energy, where accurate demand forecasting is essential for maintaining efficient supply chains, reducing costs, and ensuring timely product availability. This study evaluates the performance of traditional time series forecasting models on forecasting of lubricants demand, with a specific focus on demand exhibiting a linear increasing trend as a prevalent pattern in many situations. The models tested include ARMA, ARIMA, SARIMA, and Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES), which are widely used for forecasting in scenarios with linear and seasonal patterns. Two datasets were selected based on their linear trend characteristics, representative of the steady and consistent growth in demand for lubricants across different industries. The datasets were split into training and test sets, with model parameters optimized to minimize the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Performance was measured using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results showed that SARIMA consistently outperformed the other models, with TES, ARIMA, and ARMA following in effectiveness. The study highlights the significance of accurate lubricants demand forecasting in improving supply chain efficiency. Furthermore, the presence of a linear increasing trend in demand data underscores the importance of selecting appropriate models that can effectively capture and project these trends, which are vital for informed decision-making in supply chain management of lubricant industries.

DOI

10.21608/jest.2024.320072.1097

Keywords

ARIMA, Exponential smoothing, Increasing Linear Pattern, seasonality, time series

Authors

First Name

Islam M.

Last Name

Hammam

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Design and Production Engineering Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, EGYPT.

Email

islam.maged@eng.asu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

-

First Name

Amin K.

Last Name

El-Kharbotly

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Design and Production Engineering Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, EGYPT.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Yomna M.

Last Name

Sadek

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Design and Production Engineering Department, Ain Shams University, Cairo, EGYPT.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

21

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

50878

Issue Date

2024-10-01

Receive Date

2024-09-11

Publish Date

2024-10-01

Page Start

82

Page End

92

Print ISSN

2090-5882

Online ISSN

2090-5955

Link

https://jest.journals.ekb.eg/article_384971.html

Detail API

https://jest.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=384971

Order

384,971

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,211

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of the Egyptian Society of Tribology

Publication Link

https://jest.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LUBRICANTS DEMAND FORECASTING

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024