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Wind Forecasting Based on Hybrid Stochastic Scheme

Article

Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Wind forecasting has gained considerable interest due to the abundance of renewable energy and the rapid advancement of wind energy extraction technologies. Wind forecasting is the process of extracting one or more features from time series data to increase prediction accuracy. The various forecasting models for wind speed and power include physical, statistical, computer, and hybrid models. The steps involved in forecasting wind speed and energy are preprocessing the raw data, feature extraction, and prediction. In this work, hybrid model prediction algorithms are combined to obtain better forecasting accuracy and maintain model efficacy and simplicity. The proposed model combines either autoregressive or autoregressive integrated moving average with cumulative Weibull distribution. The results demonstrated an improvement in short- and medium-term prediction when compared to other computational techniques such as Weibull, (AR), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Numerical error evaluation approaches such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error Mean Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error were used to forecast the model's correctness. The results indicated that the hybrid model's projected error is signification less than that of the AR and ARIMA models independently.

DOI

10.21608/jaet.2022.144982.1204

Keywords

Wind forecasting, renewable energy, data preprocessing, Weibull, autoregressive

Authors

First Name

Ramadan

Last Name

Mostafa Elwan

MiddleName

Mohamed

Affiliation

Electrical Engineering Department Benha Faculty of Engineering Benha, Egypt

Email

r.elwan50915@beng.bu.edu.eg

City

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Orcid

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Volume

43

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

46001

Issue Date

2024-01-01

Receive Date

2022-06-15

Publish Date

2024-01-01

Page Start

395

Page End

407

Print ISSN

2682-2091

Online ISSN

2812-5487

Link

https://jaet.journals.ekb.eg/article_340795.html

Detail API

https://jaet.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=340795

Order

340,795

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,142

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Advanced Engineering Trends

Publication Link

https://jaet.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Wind Forecasting Based on Hybrid Stochastic Scheme

Details

Type

Article

Created At

25 Dec 2024