Beta
312419

Economics of Exploiting a Marginal Heavy Oil Field in Nigeria: Deterministic and Stochastic Approach

Article

Last updated: 24 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

Petroleum Engineering

Abstract

When an oilfield is a marginal field, it creates the impression of low revenue to investors because possible recoverable hydrocarbon may fall below 50MMSTB, the issue with marginal heavy oil fields is that the investor is saddled with a burden of low heavy oil price and high CAPEX. This is because the price of heavy oil is discounted by approximately 50% the price of light/medium crude oil. The question the investor would ask is “venture or not to venture?" This paper looks at a shallow water field of 42 meters depth that is both a marginal field and a heavy oil field. It explores the implications of the Nigerian marginal oilfield fiscal policy (royalty and tax rates), heavy oil price and the high cost of recovering heavy oil on the overall field economics. Discounted cash flow model was employed to carry out a deterministic analysis on the field's production profile. Our stochastic model has oil price, tax rate, royalty rate, overriding royalty rates to the farmor and capital expenditure are the input variables while the contractor's take, host government take and farmor royalty deductions are the output variables. Our results show that the investment is sensitive to changes on the input variables like tax rate, heavy oil price, royalty rates and capital cost. We suggest that modifications be made on the marginal oilfield fiscal policy to encourage more investments on marginal heavy oil fields.

DOI

10.21608/jpme.2023.151635.1136

Keywords

net present value (NPV), Internal rate of return (IRR), Rate of Return (ROR), Heavy Oil (HO)

Authors

First Name

Adaobi (Mrs)

Last Name

Anele

MiddleName

Nwosi

Affiliation

Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Nkpolu, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Email

adaobi.nwosi-anele@ust.edu.ng

City

Port Harcourt

Orcid

0000000196130173

First Name

Bright

Last Name

Kinate

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Nkpolu, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Email

kinate.bright@ust.edu.ng

City

Port Harcourt

Orcid

0000-0002-2763-33313

First Name

Uchenna

Last Name

Elikee

MiddleName

Daniel

Affiliation

Department of Petroleum Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Rivers State University of Science and Technology, Nkpolu, Port Harcourt, Nigeria.

Email

uchenna.elikee@ust.edu.ng

City

Port Harcourt

Orcid

-

Volume

25

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

41510

Issue Date

2023-08-01

Receive Date

2022-08-25

Publish Date

2023-08-01

Page Start

98

Page End

104

Print ISSN

1110-6506

Online ISSN

2682-3292

Link

https://jpme.journals.ekb.eg/article_312419.html

Detail API

https://jpme.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=312419

Order

312,419

Type

Full-length article

Type Code

934

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Petroleum and Mining Engineering

Publication Link

https://jpme.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Economics of Exploiting a Marginal Heavy Oil Field in Nigeria: Deterministic and Stochastic Approach

Details

Type

Article

Created At

24 Dec 2024