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293197

Modeling Sigmoidal Growth Curves to Study the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Egypt

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Last updated: 24 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Sigmoid growth models play an important role in describing many natural events that have a sigmoidal curve (S-shaped). In this paper, the two sigmoid growth models based on Burr Type XII distribution called the Burr 1 Type XII and Burr 2 Type XII sigmoid growth models are proposed to be able to describe various situations with accuracy. The methods of estimation of the non-linear least squares and maximum likelihood are used to estimate the parameters of the proposed models. The performance of the new proposed models is investigated and compared with the classical sigmoid growth, Brody and Weibull models in describing the growth of confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in Egypt. The results showed that the new proposed model, Burr 1 Type XII sigmoidal growth is superior over the other models with respect to the coefficient of determination , mean squared error, root mean squared error, model efficiency, and the Akaike information corrected criterion especially when NLS estimation is used.

DOI

10.21608/jsfc.2022.293197

Authors

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N. E

Last Name

Abd Al-Rahman

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Affiliation

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce (Girls' Branch) Al-Azhar University, Tafahna Al-Ashraf, Egypt

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First Name

A. E

Last Name

Abu-Hussien

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-

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce (Girls' Branch) Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

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Orcid

-

First Name

E. G

Last Name

Yehia

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-

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce (Girls' Branch) Al-Azhar University, Tafahna Al-Ashraf, Egypt

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-

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-

Orcid

-

First Name

, S. A

Last Name

Mousa

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-

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce (Girls' Branch) Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt

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-

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-

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Volume

27

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

40311

Issue Date

2022-01-01

Receive Date

2023-04-01

Publish Date

2022-01-01

Page Start

1

Page End

24

Print ISSN

2636-3674

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https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/article_293197.html

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https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=293197

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المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

761

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية لقطاع کليات التجارة بجامعة الأزهر

Publication Link

https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Modeling Sigmoidal Growth Curves to Study the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Egypt

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Article

Created At

24 Dec 2024