Based on data from 37 years of catches and environmental satellites in addition to model observations from 1983 to 2020, this study assessed the potential impact of changing oceanographic conditions on the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias) population in the southern Alboran Sea. To determine the best potential predictors, as well as building the best models to explain the variation of this species's abundance, forward stepwise regression was applied to environmental predictors, viz. sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST), surface chlorophyll a (Chl-a), U and V wind components, NAO index, and the velocity of Atlantic jets represented by sea level difference (SLD). Then, linear models (LMs) were built and ranked by their AICc values to choose the best predictive models.





The findings demonstrate that this species was vulnerable to a variety of environmental conditions, such as variations in sea salinity, temperature, currents, and wind patterns, which can affect both the species' abundance and how it was exploited by fisheries. This study emphasized the enormous impact of the Atlantic jet on the dynamics of small pelagic fish populations in the Alboran Sea, underscoring the need of taking oceanographic processes into account while managing these resources. However, it can be challenging to foresee how small pelagic species will be impacted by climate change due to the lack of long-term monitoring programs, data sources, and the complexity of environmental changes. Therefore, future research should be prioritized to better understand how environmental changes affect these species and their habitats.