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369777

Statistical Measurement of the Impact of Climate and Environmental Variables on Egyptian Agricultural Output Indicators

Article

Last updated: 01 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural economics

Abstract

Climate change is seen as one of the most serious dangers to Egypt's Vision 2030 sustainable development goals, and the agricultural sector plays a critical role in reaching those goals. The research challenge is that Egypt's CO2 emissions have increased from around 91.1 million tons in 1990 to approximately 259.3 million tons in 2021, representing a 184.6% increase over 1990. This indicates a rise in the harmful value of CO2 gas emissions at rates that exceed the value of agricultural domestic product, which was about 20.1 billion pounds in 1990, compared to about 523.8 billion pounds in 2021. The research also seeks to investigate the influence of climate change on the value of agricultural domestic products as well as the goals of sustainable economic development. In order to describe the economic factors under consideration, the study employed both descriptive and quantitative analysis approaches. Regarding investigating the environmental difficulties represented by encroachment on agricultural lands, the extent of pollution with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, the quantity of fertilizer usage, and the amount of pesticide consumption. The results of the study indicated that their general average amounted to about 4.3 thousand acres, about 7.9 million tons, about 6.6 million tons, about 1.3 million tons, and about 9.4 thousand tons, and that both the phenomenon of encroachment on agricultural lands and the amount of consumption of phosphate fertilizers are increasing annually by a statistically significant amount of about 283.2 acres, or about 0.01 million tons. The amount of nitrogen fertilizer consumption and total fertilizer consumption is decreasing at a statistically significant rate of about 0.01 million tons and about 0.1 million tons, respectively, with an annual growth rate of about 6.6%, 1.2%, 0.8%, 0.9%, and 3.5% during the period (1990–2021). The statistical significance of several environmental and climatic variables affecting the value of agricultural GDP in Egypt, measured using the stepwise multiple regression model in its double logarithmic form, is at the 1% level. The findings show that raising CO2 emissions by roughly 1% increases the value of agricultural GDP by about 2.1%. This does not follow the logic of economic theory. Increasing the reclaimed area by about 1% increases the value of the agricultural domestic product by about 0.1%; increasing the cropped area by about 1% increases the value of the agricultural domestic product by about 3.0%; and increasing the volume of encroachment on agricultural lands by about 1% decreases the value of agricultural GDP by about 0.1%. This follows the logic of economic theory. The total elasticity of the stepwise regression model for the value of GDP was around 5.1. One of the most important recommendations made by the study is the use of smart agriculture approaches to combat climate change in Egypt, such as producing new strains that can withstand high temperatures, salt, and drought, as well as kinds that use little water.

DOI

10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2024.369777

Keywords

Climate Change, CO2 emissions, Sustainable Development, Agricultural Domestic Product

Authors

First Name

Wesam

Last Name

E.M.E. El-Ashram

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Dept. Econ. and Rural, Fac. Environ., Agricultural Sciences, Arish University

Email

wesam.alashram@aru.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Soad

Last Name

A. Ibrahim

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Economics and Rural Development - Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Al-Arish University - Egypt.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Ryad

Last Name

I. Mostafa

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Economics and Rural Development - Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Al-Arish University - Egypt.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

45

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

49063

Issue Date

2024-09-01

Receive Date

2024-07-28

Publish Date

2024-09-01

Page Start

749

Page End

768

Print ISSN

1110-0176

Online ISSN

2536-9784

Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/article_369777.html

Detail API

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=369777

Order

23

Type

Original Article

Type Code

53

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Alexandria Science Exchange Journal

Publication Link

https://asejaiqjsae.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Statistical Measurement of the Impact of Climate and Environmental Variables on Egyptian Agricultural Output Indicators

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Dec 2024