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Modeling, analyzing and simulating the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

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Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.Lassa fever is an infectious and zoonotic disease with incidence ranging between a
hundred to three hundred thousand cases, with approximately five thousand deaths
reported yearly in West Africa. This disease has become endemic in the Lassa belt
of Sub-Saharan Africa, thus increasing the health burden in these regions including
Nigeria. A deterministic mathematical model is presented to study the dynamics of
Lassa fever in Nigeria. The model describes the transmission between two interacting
hosts, namely the human and rodent populations. Using the cumulative number
of cases reported by the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control within the first week of
January 2020 through the eleventh week in 2021, we performed the model fitting and
parameterization using the nonlinear least square method. The reproduction number
R0 which measures the potential spread of Lassa fever in the population is used to
investigate the local and global stability of the system. The result shows that the model
system is locally and globally asymptomatically stable whenever R0 < 1 , otherwise
it is unstable. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium stability is investigated and the
criteria for the existence of the phenomenon of bifurcation is presented. We performed
the sensitivity analysis of each reproduction number parameter and solutions of the
developed model are derived through an iterative numerical technique, a six-stage
fifth-order Runge–Kutta method. Numerical simulations of the total infected human
population (Eh + Ih) under different numerical values (controlled parameters) are presented.
The result from this study shows that combined controlled parameters made
the total infected human population decline faster and thus reduces Lassa fever's
burden on the population.

DOI

10.1186/s42787-022-00138-x

Keywords

Stability analysis, Sensitivity analysis, Model fitting, Controlled parameter, Reproduction number, Lassa fever

Authors

First Name

Mayowa M.

Last Name

Ojo

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of South Africa, Florida, South Africa., Thermo Fisher Scientific, Microbiology Division, Lenexa, USA.

Email

mmojomth@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Emile

Last Name

Goufo

MiddleName

Franc Doungmo

Affiliation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of South Africa, Florida, South Africa.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

30

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

51015

Issue Date

2022-01-01

Receive Date

2024-10-14

Publish Date

2022-01-01

Page Start

1

Page End

31

Print ISSN

1110-256X

Online ISSN

2090-9128

Link

https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/article_386211.html

Detail API

https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=386211

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1

Type

Original Article

Type Code

3,248

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society

Publication Link

https://joems.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Modeling, analyzing and simulating the dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

Details

Type

Article

Created At

21 Dec 2024