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355004

Enhancing Stock Price Prediction Accuracy Using ARIMA and Advanced Greylag Goose Optimizer Algorithm

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Optimization Algorithms
Time Series and Forecasting

Abstract

This paper applies ARIMA and the Greylag Goose Optimizer (GGO) algorithm, among others, for pre-trending the stock market prediction. This study aims to improve stock price forecasting using proper feature selection methods and time series modeling. The dataset encompasses historical pricing data that was scraped from Yahoo Finance in January 2019. There were many models for feature selection applied in the data preprocessing phase, such as bGGO, bGWO, bGWO_PSO, bPSO, bWAO, bBBO, bMVO, bSBO, bGWOGA and bFA. The model's performance was judged on metrics based on average error, select size and fitness; the GGO (Greylag Goose Optimizer) algorithm had the best performance rating, with an Average error equal to 0.36455. The ARIMA model was used to predict future stock prices based on the selected features, with the lowest MSE being 0.001367831 and an RMSE of 0.0369842, evidencing powerful forecasting ability. This outcome proves the reliability of integrating feature selection approaches with ARIMA for stock price prediction; it helps improve forecast accuracy and provides valuable insights for investors and analysts. The final point indicates the importance of powerful optimization tools in decision-making.

DOI

10.21608/jaiep.2024.355004

Keywords

stock prices, Feature Selection, ARIMA, Greylag Goose Optimizer, Financial Data, Machine Learning

Authors

First Name

Mostafa

Last Name

Abotaleb

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of System Programming, South Ural State University, 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia

Email

abotalebmostafa@bk.ru

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Wei Hong

Last Name

Lim

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Engineering, Technology and Built Environment, UCSI University, Kuala Lumpur 56000, Malaysia

Email

limwh@ucsiuniverisity.edu.my

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Pradeep

Last Name

Mishra

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

College of Agriculture, Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya (JNKVV), Rewa 486001, India

Email

pradeepjnkvv@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Al-Seyday.T.

Last Name

Qenawy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Intelligent Systems and Machine Learning Lab, Shenzhen 518000, China

Email

s.qenawy@asia.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Ehab

Last Name

ALmetwally

MiddleName

M.

Affiliation

Faculty of Science, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Email

emalmetwally@imamu.edu.sa

City

Riyadh

Orcid

0000-0002-3888-1275

Volume

1

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

47580

Issue Date

2024-04-01

Receive Date

2024-05-18

Publish Date

2024-04-01

Page Start

49

Page End

65

Print ISSN

3009-7452

Online ISSN

3009-7002

Link

https://jaiep.journals.ekb.eg/article_355004.html

Detail API

https://jaiep.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=355004

Order

355,004

Type

Original Article

Type Code

3,148

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Artificial Intelligence in Engineering Practice

Publication Link

https://jaiep.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Enhancing Stock Price Prediction Accuracy Using ARIMA and Advanced Greylag Goose Optimizer Algorithm

Details

Type

Article

Created At

21 Dec 2024