348141

A Comparison between Prediction Methods of Incurred but Not Paid (IBNP) Reserve (A Theoretical and Applied Study)

Article

Last updated: 15 Feb 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

تأمينية

Abstract

In this study the IBNP reserve has been predicted using the ARIMA model and MLP-ANN model and then the results of both models have been compared, taking into consideration the earned premiums, paid claims and time as independent variables, and concluded that the earned premiums, the paid claims and time have significant effects on the IBNP reserve value and the MLP-ANN model is one of the best statistical models used in predicting the IBNP reserve as it has high accuracy results of RMSE and MAE tests. The model has been applied to actual data obtained from statistical yearbooks to obtain the value of IBNP reserves, earned premiums and paid claims for the period from 1995 to 2020.

DOI

10.21608/sjcp.2024.348141

Keywords

IBNP reserve, ARIMA Model, MLP ANN model

Authors

First Name

Rehab

Last Name

Youssef

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Quantitative methods department, faculty of commerce, Sohag University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Tarek

Last Name

Abdelbary

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

faculty of Commerce ,at Beni Suef University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Ali

Last Name

Bakhit

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Quantitative methods department, faculty of commerce, Sohag University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Atta

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Quantitative methods department, faculty of commerce, Sohag University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

38

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

46953

Issue Date

2024-03-01

Receive Date

2024-03-31

Publish Date

2024-03-01

Page Start

131

Page End

142

Print ISSN

1110-8452

Link

https://sjcp.journals.ekb.eg/article_348141.html

Detail API

http://journals.ekb.eg?_action=service&article_code=348141

Order

348,141

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة البحوث التجارية المعاصرة

Publication Link

https://sjcp.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

A Comparison between Prediction Methods of Incurred but Not Paid (IBNP) Reserve (A Theoretical and Applied Study)

Details

Type

Article

Created At

21 Dec 2024