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Predictive Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms to Forecast Academic Grades

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Last updated: 29 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Accurate academic grade forecasting is crucial for improving student outcomes and optimizing resource allocation in educational settings, but traditional methods often lack complexity. In this paper, we explore using various algorithms for predictive modeling to forecast academic grades. The primary goal is to identify the most effective algorithm for predicting student performance, which can assist educators and policymakers in making informed decisions. Algorithms such as Linear Regression (LR), Decision Trees (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) were utilized to build the models. Each was assessed using metrics including training and testing scores, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Median Squared Error (MedSE), and R-squared (R²).The findings revealed that Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR) achieved the highest accuracy, with a training score of 0.999, a testing score of 0.96, an MSE of 0.5068, an MAE of 0.258, and an R² of 0.995. These results indicate that GBR surpasses the other models in predicting academic performance, offering a reliable tool for grade forecasting and supporting educational planning and intervention strategies.

DOI

10.21608/aiis.2024.322719.1009

Keywords

Academic Grade Forecasting, Predictive Modeling, Educational planning

Authors

First Name

Nora

Last Name

Elrashidy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Kafrelsheikh University

Email

noura.alrashidy@ai.kfs.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Marwa

Last Name

El-Sedik

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Kafrelsheikh University

Email

marwaelsadeek@ai.kfs.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Zeinab

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Kafrelsheikh University

Email

zainabhassan@ai.kfs.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Abeer

Last Name

Saber

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Damietta University

Email

abeersaber@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Esraa

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Kafrelsheikh University

Email

esraa.hassan@ai.kfs.edu.eg

City

KFS

Orcid

-

Volume

3

Article Issue

7

Related Issue

52170

Issue Date

2025-02-01

Receive Date

2024-09-21

Publish Date

2025-02-01

Page Start

1

Page End

15

Print ISSN

2812-6114

Online ISSN

2812-6122

Link

https://aiis.journals.ekb.eg/article_397466.html

Detail API

https://aiis.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=397466

Order

397,466

Type

Original Article

Type Code

2,676

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Artificial Intelligence Information Security

Publication Link

https://aiis.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Predictive Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Algorithms to Forecast Academic Grades

Details

Type

Article

Created At

18 Dec 2024