389093

Optimized Wave Model Describing Infected Cases and Deaths of COVID-19 and Its Variants in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Numerical optimization

Abstract

Infections are serious disturbing problem over the time. They are usually showing as a tsunami waves hitting the societies. COVID-19 and its followed variants are the recent pandemic in this decade. In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to describe the wave propagation of COVID-19 daily cases and deaths. The model is applied to the data of Egyptian society which is representing the confirmed daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 and of its followed variants. The pandemic is studied as a successive flow of waves over the first three years. These waves are described by summation of sech-hyperbolic functions. The parameters of the model are estimated using Newton optimization method. Finally, the relation between cases and deaths is illustrated before and after vaccination to show the vaccination effect on society. Any pandemic data can be inserted to the proposed model, and then optimize the parameters for any country to fit the data inserted.

DOI

10.21608/ejmaa.2024.300382.1231

Keywords

pandemic, COVID-19, mathematical modelling, mathematical optimization, Linear Regression

Authors

First Name

Lina

Last Name

Shalby

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Women, Ain Shams University

Email

lina.khamis@women.asu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

13

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

51150

Issue Date

2025-01-01

Receive Date

2024-07-15

Publish Date

2025-01-01

Page Start

1

Page End

10

Print ISSN

3009-6731

Online ISSN

2090-729X

Link

https://ejmaa.journals.ekb.eg/article_389093.html

Detail API

https://ejmaa.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=389093

Order

389,093

Type

Regular research papers

Type Code

2,651

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Electronic Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications

Publication Link

https://ejmaa.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Optimized Wave Model Describing Infected Cases and Deaths of COVID-19 and Its Variants in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

18 Dec 2024