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224658

Comparative Study between Classical Methods (CM) and Machine Learning Algorithms (MLA) for Time Series Forecasting

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Last updated: 23 Jan 2023

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Abstract

Accurately demand forecasting is vital for effective supply chain planning activities and all related applications. The demand patterns which generated to forecast including horizontal pattern which happens when the data values vary horizontally around a constant mean. For example, a product whose sales are stable and do not increase or reduce such as dairy milk. Seasonal pattern occurs if a series depending on seasonal factors (e.g., the quarter of the year, the month, or the day of the week such as flu vaccine, soft drinks and ice creams. A trend pattern When data shows a long-term growth or decline. An example of a trend pattern in many firms' sales, businesses, such as electrical vehicles and cell phones. However, all forecasting models have distinct advantages and limitations where the generally accepted principle that no individual forecasting model is the best for all situations under all circumstances. Selecting appropriate forecasting methods from numerous alternatives is crucial to success. In this work, we conduct a comparative study between classical and machine learning forecasting algorithms via a statistical programming language R, which is used to generate time series data. The generated data has a mean of 2000 units and standard deviation ranges from 10 to 50, and has a different factor that influence the forecasting ability of classical methods and machine learning algorithms in how to utilize their capacity and extract information effectively. As the amount of historical data available, the type of data pattern, increasing or decreasing trend or seasonal factor, and the variation amount or randomness available in the data. The performance was measured using (MAPE) as the accuracy measurement of demand forecasting.

DOI

10.21608/erjsh.2021.224658

Keywords

Demand Forecasting, Neural Networks, Timeseries, MAPE)

Authors

First Name

Heba

Last Name

Salah

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Affiliation

Master Eng. Student

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First Name

Mohammed

Last Name

Hussein

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Affiliation

Prof of IE, Helwan University

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First Name

Ismail

Last Name

Zahran

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Affiliation

Assist. Prof, Helwan University

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Volume

50

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

32141

Issue Date

2021-10-01

Receive Date

2022-03-14

Publish Date

2021-10-01

Page Start

29

Page End

40

Print ISSN

1687-1340

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https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/article_224658.html

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https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=224658

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224,658

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Research articles

Type Code

2,276

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Engineering Research Journal - Faculty of Engineering (Shoubra)

Publication Link

https://erjsh.journals.ekb.eg/

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Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023