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271897

Seasonal Analysis for Globally Prices of Some Agricultural Commodity for the Purpose for Forecasting Using the SARIMA Model

Article

Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

Subjects

-

Tags

Economic and socio agricultural

Abstract

Prices are one of those main axes that have an impact on the movement of local and world markets, Therefore, the research aims to forecast the monthly future prices of oranges and soybeans in the world market, To achieve the aims of the research, it relied on both descriptive statistical methods and quantitative methods represented by the univariate times series models of the standard prediction model (SARIMA), the most important results that were reached with regard to the world price that the SARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,0) model is the best in predicting orange prices, where it passed the tests of estimation and judgment on the predictive quality of the model, including (ADF), (AIC), (U) and (MAPE), where the expected world price of oranges during the period from 8/2022 to 9/2023 ranged between a minimum of $0.739 per kilogram during the month of April 2023 and a maximum of about $0.784 per kilogram during the month of September 2022, with an error of 13.4%, With regard to the global price of soybeans, the estimates of the SARIMA model (2,1,2)(0,1,2) are the best in the future forecast, Where the expected world price of soybeans during the period from 8/2022 to 9/2023 ranged between 574.9 dollars per ton as a minimum during the month of May of 2023 and a maximum of about 656.1 dollars per ton as a maximum during the month of August of 2022, with an error of 16.4%, therefore.

DOI

10.21608/nvjas.2022.172044.1107

Keywords

Stationary, univariate time-series models, SARIMA model, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Theil coefficient, Forecast

Authors

First Name

Nasser

Last Name

Hammam

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Marketing Research, Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt

Email

nasser.hammam75@gmail.com

City

Gize

Orcid

0000-0003-2952-8899

Volume

2

Article Issue

6

Related Issue

36974

Issue Date

2022-10-01

Receive Date

2022-10-31

Publish Date

2022-10-01

Page Start

443

Page End

458

Print ISSN

2805-2420

Online ISSN

2805-2439

Link

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/article_271897.html

Detail API

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=271897

Order

12

Type

Original Research

Type Code

2,101

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

New Valley Journal of Agricultural Science

Publication Link

https://nvjas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Seasonal Analysis for Globally Prices of Some Agricultural Commodity for the Purpose for Forecasting Using the SARIMA Model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023