Beta
ManageSearchChatDiscover
197015

FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

OverviewSimilar Items

Subjects

-

Tags

-

Abstract

The paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting
time series data of the area, average yield and Production of wheat crop in
Egypt and Beni-Swef Governorate. The Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology
has been used for forecasting. The objective of the research is to find an
appropriate ARIMA model for forecasting for area, average yield and the
production of wheat crop. The diagnostic checking has shown that
ARIMA(0,2,1) is appropriate for the area in Egypt, random walk model for
the average yield and ARIMA(1,1,1) for the production. But, in the case of
Beni-Swef Governorate the linear trend model is the best forecast model for
the area, ARIMA(0,1,2) is the best forecast model for the average yield and
linear trend model for the production The forecasts from 2007-2008 to
2012-2013 are calculated based on the selected best model by using time
series from 1982-1983 to 2006-2007, which the values for the forecasts for
the area about 3.2182 million fedan in 2007/2008 and 3.511 million fedan in
2012/2013, the average yield 18.3404 ardab/fed in 2007/2008 and 19.9925
ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 58.6243 million ardab in
2007/2008 and 68.3664 million ardab in 2012/2013 for Egypt. In the case of
Beni-Swef Governorate, the area about 142713 fedan in 2007/2008 and
161124 fedan in 2012/2013, the average yield 21.8916 ardab/fed in
2007/2008 and 23.6585 ardab/fed in 2012/2013 and the production 2.890
million ardab in 2007/2008 and 3.364 million ardab in 2012/2013. These
forecasts would be helpful for the policy makers to foresee ahead of time the
future requirements of grain storage import and/or export and adopt
appropriate measures in this regard.

DOI

10.21608/fjard.2009.197015

Keywords

Forecasting, Wheat area, Wheat average yield, Wheat production, ARIMA Models

Authors

First Name

Ahmed, A. M.

Last Name

Atia

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Institute of Economic Research, A.R.C., Giza- Egypt.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed, H.M.,

Last Name

Atwa

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Institute of Economic Research, A.R.C., Giza- Egypt.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

23

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

27885

Issue Date

2009-01-01

Receive Date

2021-09-30

Publish Date

2009-01-01

Page Start

59

Page End

75

Print ISSN

1110-7790

Online ISSN

2805-2528

Article File

FJARD_Volume 23_Issue 1_Pages 59-75.pdf

PDF . 527.7kB

Link

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/article_197015.html

Detail API

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=197015

Order

6

Type

Research articles.

Type Code

1,920

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development

Publication Link

https://fjard.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

FORECASTING FOR THE AREA, AVERAGE YIELD AND PRODUCTION OF WHEAT CROP IN EGYPT AND BENI-SWEF GOVERNORATE USING ARIMA MODELS

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023