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244260

Bayesian Prediction of Moving Average Processes Using Different Types of Priors

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Last updated: 28 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The current article approaches the Bayesian prediction of moving average processes using three well-known priors: g prior, natural conjugate (NC) prior, and Jeffreys' prior. The main goal of the study is to derive approximate one step-ahead predictive densities for moving average (MA) processes using each of the above-mentioned priors. However, the basic contribution is the derivation of the predictive density based upon the g prior. Investigating the performance of the three one step-ahead predictive densities is performed via comprehensive simulation studies using MA(1) and MA(2) processes for illustration. The simulation results show the equivalence of the performance of the three one step-ahead predictive densities based on the three considered priors in the forecasting process.

DOI

10.21608/esju.2018.244260

Keywords

Forecasting, prediction, three one step-ahead predictive density, moving average Process, g peior, Jeffreys' prior, natural conjugate prior, informative prior, non- informative prior

Authors

First Name

Samir

Last Name

Shaarawy

MiddleName

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Affiliation

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Emad

Last Name

Soliman

MiddleName

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Affiliation

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Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Heba

Last Name

Shahin

MiddleName

E.A.

Affiliation

-

Email

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City

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Orcid

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Volume

62

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

35029

Issue Date

2018-06-01

Receive Date

2022-06-15

Publish Date

2018-06-01

Page Start

35

Page End

57

Print ISSN

0542-1748

Online ISSN

2786-0086

Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/article_244260.html

Detail API

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=244260

Order

3

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The Egyptian Statistical Journal

Publication Link

https://esju.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Bayesian Prediction of Moving Average Processes Using Different Types of Priors

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023