Abstract The agricultural credit plays a very important and excessive role in making progress for the rural agricultural development. But there are several problems that face the farmers and make the farmer unable to repay his deserved loans therefore the development and credit bank will get loss and will not able to grant more credit for the farmers. The problem of this thesis is the decline of the role of the credit in covering the risks of agricultural credit in Egypt because of the increase of the rate of the loss in 2 this sector therefore the purpose of this thesis is the identity of the suitable probability distribution for the pricing of credit insurance through the identification a number of accidents also the volume of the expected loss Through this thesis it has been shown that Poisson Distribution was more suitable for the private data for a number of accidents But The log – normal Distribution was the suitable for the evaluation of the volume of the expected loss.