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205887

Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model

Article

Last updated: 05 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Business Administration

Abstract

Given the high level of uncertainty experienced by open economies in the light of Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and global economic recession expectations, predictive studies become extremely important, particularly when it comes to commodities with high global demand. Because crude oil is a major source of energy on which most economic and commercial activities are based, the primary aim of the study is to forecast oil prices for the within and out-of-sample period using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). Study results showed that the ARIMA model is delivering satisfactory results in the prediction process. Moreover, prices are expected to see a slight increase and stability over the next few months.

DOI

10.21608/dusj.2021.205887

Keywords

COVID-19, ARIMA, crude oil, Forecasting and Prices

Authors

First Name

Assia

Last Name

ATIL

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Economics, LADBG, Université 8 Mai 1945- Guelma, Algeria

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Bouchra

Last Name

MAHFOUD

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Economics, LRIEDD, Badji Mokhtar- Annaba University, Algeria

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

4

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

29002

Issue Date

2021-04-01

Receive Date

2021-11-21

Publish Date

2021-04-01

Page Start

1

Page End

12

Print ISSN

2636-3046

Online ISSN

2636-3054

Link

https://dusj.journals.ekb.eg/article_205887.html

Detail API

https://dusj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=205887

Order

1

Type

Review articles

Type Code

1,770

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Delta University Scientific Journal

Publication Link

https://dusj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023