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125699

Determination of Upper and Lower Limits of Concession Period for PPP Projects Using Probabilistic NPV

Article

Last updated: 23 Jan 2023

Subjects

-

Tags

Structural

Abstract

This paper provides a methodology to determine the upper and lower limits of concession period of public private partnerships that would be useful both to the public and the private sector with the impact of risks and uncertainties taken into consideration. The model uses Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effect of risks and uncertainties on the concession period. Net present value (NPV) analysis is used for financial evaluation. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model, hypothetical public private partnership (PPP) rail way project in Egypt was used a case study. After applying the model accurate results are obtained. However, using this model gives the practitioners a clearly vision about the value of concession period insuring that the private sector doesn't lose his investment and the government can benefit from the project before end of its service life.

DOI

10.21608/erjeng.2019.125699

Keywords

Risk, (PPP), (NPV), uncertainty, payback period, (NAV), (IRR)

Authors

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

Elbaz

MiddleName

M.

Affiliation

Structural Engineering Department, Mansoura Higher Institute for engineering and Technology, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Adel

Last Name

Eldesouky

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Professor of Structural Engineering

Email

adel.eldesouky@f-eng.tanta.edu.eg

City

TANTA

Orcid

-

Volume

3

Article Issue

September

Related Issue

18764

Issue Date

2019-09-01

Receive Date

2019-04-26

Publish Date

2019-09-01

Page Start

31

Page End

39

Print ISSN

2356-9441

Online ISSN

2735-4873

Link

https://erjeng.journals.ekb.eg/article_125699.html

Detail API

https://erjeng.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=125699

Order

5

Type

Research articles

Type Code

1,605

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Engineering Research

Publication Link

https://erjeng.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

-

Details

Type

Article

Created At

23 Jan 2023