This paper presents a probabilistic approach based on the convolution
technique to assess the long–term performance of a Wind Energy
Conversion System (WECS) for both stand–alone and grid–linked
applications. A methodology is developed to use the proposed model to
determine the maximum WECS installed capacity for a given number of
turbines on a wind farm to satisfy the load with a certain Expected Energy
Not Supplied (EENS). The technique is new in that it uses a simple
procedure to estimate the joint probability distribution function of the total
available wind power and that of the turbines operating modes due to
hardware failure. Analytical expressions are developed to assess the
reliability and cost benefits in electric power systems. The proposed
method is applied to the IEEE Reliability Test System (IEEE– RTS ).