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130119

The Effect Of Changes in Government Expenditure and Exchange Rate on The Income Of The United Kingdom

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Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

This paper examines the effect of changes in policies relating to fiscal policy, monetary policy and international competitiveness and trade flows within a Mundell- Fleming type open economy model by using time series data of the UK economy. Policy scenarios was analysed using ex-post forecasts from 1990 to 2001 and ex-ante forecasts for 2001-2020. The results indicate that the expansionary policy, with growth of government expenditure, by various percentages, will raise income and as a consequence, the predicted values of tax, consumption, and imports will increase. However, when using a contractory policy, cutting government expenditure, by different percentages we find that the most notable outcome is the decrease in predicted tax. This decrease for income, consumption and import is shown in the early years of the forecasting period. However, in the long run, these variables will increase. Concerning the monetary policy represented in change in the exchange rate, we have two cases. When the pound appreciates against the dollar, it was found that exports fall and imports rose causing net exports to decline. Import will increase in the first three years. The predicted values of income, consumption and tax will increase. The opposite happens in the second case which is the depreciation in the pound. Finally, impulse response analysis is used to determine the response of income, consumption, and investment over time to a shock.

DOI

10.21608/caf.2014.130119

Authors

First Name

seham hamdy

Last Name

negm

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Faculty of Commerce - Tanta University

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Volume

34

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

19019

Issue Date

2014-09-01

Receive Date

2013-12-15

Publish Date

2014-09-01

Page Start

1

Page End

31

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_130119.html

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https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=130119

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6

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The Effect Of Changes in Government Expenditure and Exchange Rate on The Income Of The United Kingdom

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023