126194

The forecasting of fish production, imports and exportswith the analysis of domestic consumption and expected self-sufficiency ratio during the period 2017-2030 in Saudi Arabia.

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Tags

الإحصاء والرياضة والتأمين

Abstract

The main purpose of this research is to use augmented vector autoregressive model to forecast the production of fish, imports and exports in order to compute the expected domestic consumption and analyze the self-sufficiency ratio that expected to occur during period (2017-2030). According to (IC) the appropriate empirical model of these group was VARX(2) model with constant and quadratic trend. From the results of conditional lest squares estimates, the statistical tests proved that the linear trend terms as well quadratic improved the predictive ability of the model. Also the quantity of both production, imports and exports lagged one and two period has significant effect, and their addition improves the predictive ability of the model. The prices of both imports and exports in their logarithmic form have a significant effect and improvement predictive ability of the model.From results of prediction, quantity consumption as well self – sufficiency ratio was computed, and the results showed that self-sufficiency ratio will decrease with 2.4% annual growth rate. The market gap will be positive and tend to narrow. the research recommended that the interest in establishing of the specialized training institutes, Supplying the incentives that encourage young people to fish, improving the factors of fish production and supplying the local production of fish at appropriate prices to consumers.

DOI

10.21608/caf.2019.126194

Authors

First Name

Abdulaziz bin Mohammed

Last Name

Dwais

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Al Malk Saud University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mahmoud Mohammed

Last Name

Al Drene

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Al Malk Saud University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Khaled bin Nahar

Last Name

Alruwayis

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Al Malk Saud University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Sharaf al-Din Bakri

Last Name

Ahmed

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Al Malk Saud University

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

39

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

18843

Issue Date

2019-06-01

Receive Date

2019-01-29

Publish Date

2019-06-01

Page Start

2

Page End

22

Print ISSN

1110-4716

Online ISSN

2682-4825

Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/article_126194.html

Detail API

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=126194

Order

17

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

التجارة والتمويل

Publication Link

https://caf.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The forecasting of fish production, imports and exportswith the analysis of domestic consumption and expected self-sufficiency ratio during the period 2017-2030 in Saudi Arabia.

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023