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Extreme Temperature Events Can Mitigate COVID-19 Morbidity in Warm Arid Environments: A Conclusion from Late Spring 2020 Heatwave in Egypt

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Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic disease affects us all and get the world into an enormous crisis. Temperature is an important factor in infectivity reduction of viral disease. The current study screens the probable association between the extreme temperature events and COVID-19 outbreak. The most recent heatwave that hit Egypt in May 2020 selected as a case study. We studied the daily progression and current situation of COVID-19 morbidity in Egypt. The concurrent heatwave was identified and synoptically explained in deep. Considering the incubation-induced lag time between heatwave intensities and COVID-19 confirmed cases, visual interpretation of line graphs discovered an interesting identical connection between the real-time thermal intensities and the 14-day retreated infected cases during the heatwave days. The 5-day heatwave with thermal intensities 6.1–7.8 °C led to a 5-day fall in COVID-19 morbidity. The thermal intensity peak of the heatwave caused the greatest decline in COVID-19 confirmed cases by about onethird. The 2nd order polynomial regression model for the relationship suggested that heatwave intensity of 5.5 °C is the critical thermal threshold at which COVID-19 morbidity begins to be reduced, and 10.7 °C as a threshold of COVID-19 outbreak pause. It is concluded that heatwave of late spring can effectively restrict COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in warm arid environments like Egypt. COVID-19 is also highly expected to be restricted as the temperatures increase with the advance of summer season. It is recommended that lag time resulted from the virus incubation period must be considered in COVID-19 mortality and morbidity researches.

DOI

10.21608/bsge.2020.141570

Authors

First Name

Waleed

Last Name

Abbas

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Geography and GIS Department, Faculty of Arts, Ain Shams University

Email

walid.abbas@art.asu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0003-0722-6056

First Name

Ayman

Last Name

Badaw

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Physical and Numerical Research Department, Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Hossam

Last Name

Ismael

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Geography, New Valley University, Kharga, Egypt.

Email

hosam.ismael@artnv.au.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-1882-9760

Volume

93

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

20930

Issue Date

2020-12-01

Receive Date

2021-01-20

Publish Date

2021-01-02

Page Start

1

Page End

24

Print ISSN

1110-5232

Online ISSN

2735-3036

Article File

BSGE_Volume 93_Issue 1_Pages 1-24.pdf

PDF . 1.5MB

Link

https://bsge.journals.ekb.eg/article_141570.html

Detail API

https://bsge.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=141570

Order

1

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,269

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Bulletin de la Société de Géographie d'Egypte

Publication Link

https://bsge.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Extreme Temperature Events Can Mitigate COVID-19 Morbidity in Warm Arid Environments: A Conclusion from Late Spring 2020 Heatwave in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023