Beta
258070

Bent-cable Regression Applied to the Daily Maximum Temperature in Cairo Through 2021

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

-

Abstract

We use the so-called bent-cable model to describe the daily maximum temperature in Cairo, Egypt through 2021which exhibit a potentially sharp change in slope. The model comprises two linear segments, joined smoothly by a quadratic bend. The class of bent cables includes, as a limiting case, the popular piecewise-linear model (with a sharp kink), otherwise known as the broken stick. Associated with bent-cable regression is the estimation of the bend width parameter, through which the abruptness of the underlying transition may be assessed. We present worked the recorded maximum temperature in Cairo to demonstrate the regularity and irregularity of bent-cable regression encountered in finite-sample settings. We also presented the projections of the bent-cable for 2022 compared to those of accuweather and broken stick projections. Practical conditions on the design are given to ensure regularity of the full bent-cable estimation problem, if the underlying bend segment has non-zero width. Under such conditions, the least-squares estimators are shown (i) to be consistent, and (ii) to asymptotically follow a multivariate normal distribution. Hence the least-squares estimators are used to analysis the considered data.

DOI

10.21608/cfdj.2023.258070

Keywords

bent-cable - broken stick - change point - transition period - piecewise-linear model - maximum likelihood estimators - Köppen climate classification, Celsius

Authors

First Name

سمر أحمد حلمي عبد الغني

Last Name

عبد الغني

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

قسم الاحصاء والرياضيات والتامين کلية التجارة جامعة بورسعيد

Email

blue_arkedia@hotmail.com

City

بورسعيد

Orcid

0000-0000-1950-7808

First Name

سماح

Last Name

عبد العزيز

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

جامعة بورسعيد- کلية التجارة قسم الاحصاء والرياضيات والتأمين

Email

samahkamal656@gmail.com

City

Port Said

Orcid

-

Volume

4

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

36526

Issue Date

2023-01-01

Receive Date

2022-06-05

Publish Date

2023-01-01

Page Start

825

Page End

848

Print ISSN

2682-3403

Online ISSN

2682-4531

Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/article_258070.html

Detail API

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=258070

Order

27

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,242

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Bent-cable Regression Applied to the Daily Maximum Temperature in Cairo Through 2021

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023