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258059

External debt in time of inflation in Egypt: a vector error correction model

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Egypt's external debt has grown at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, higher indebtedness is related to rising inflation. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of Egypt's inflation on its external debt, as well as the interaction between these variables, notably the mutual impulse response. A “vector error correction model" (VECM) has been used to evaluate the variables of external debt stocks, final consumption expenditure, consumer price index, broad money, gross capital formation, and net trade in goods and services. Egypt's annual data has been used from 1976 to 2020. The results of the cointegration test using "Johansen's approach" show that cointegration occurs, confirming the adoption of the VECM technique. The major findings imply that inflation has a declining impact on external debt and a positive inflation shock initially reduces the external debt in the short and long term. Furthermore, the finding indicates a long-run equilibrium relationship between foreign debt and inflation, as well as bidirectional causality.

DOI

10.21608/cfdj.2023.258059

Keywords

External Debt, Inflation, vector error correction model, Final consumption expenditure, Gross capital formation, impulse response function

Authors

First Name

Sherine

Last Name

Boshra Ghaly

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

أکاديمية السادات للعلوم الادارية، کلية الادارة

Email

sherine_ghaly@yahoo.com

City

القاهرة

Orcid

-

Volume

4

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

36526

Issue Date

2023-01-01

Receive Date

2022-05-02

Publish Date

2023-01-01

Page Start

661

Page End

701

Print ISSN

2682-3403

Online ISSN

2682-4531

Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/article_258059.html

Detail API

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=258059

Order

23

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,242

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://cfdj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

External debt in time of inflation in Egypt: a vector error correction model

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023