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نموذج إحصائى لقياس العوامل المؤثرة فى هجرة الکفاءات العلمية المصرية على التنمية الإقتصادية

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Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

The research aims to measure the factors affecting on the migration of scientific competencies abroad on The Egyptian economic growth from 1990 to 2019.Then, forecasting GDP as an indicator of economic development as a result of the impact of these factors from 2020 to 2030. The Research used ordinary least squares (OLS) model, robust regression (RR), Partial Least Squares (PLS) model and the hybrid model between robust regression and partial least squares . After that it was compared between them in terms of explanatory and predictive ability. The results found that the best model for  forecasting of gross domestic product (GDP it) is robust partial least squares (RPLS) model, where its explanatory and predictive ability is higher than other models. It was found that the most important factors affecting of gross domestic product (GDP it) is the Migration of Scientific Competence Index (MSC it) and it is measured by the total number of immigrants from higher university and university education to the total number of graduates, the unemployment rate (UNEMP it),The size of the employees (EMP it), the Human Capital Index (HC it), the rate of expenditure on Research and Development (ERD it), the number of researchers working in research and development (RRD it), the proportion of public spending on education as a proportion of national income (ES it).

DOI

10.21608/mosj.2019.122432

Keywords

Migration of scientific competencies, economic development, Multicollinearity, outliers, Ordinary least squares model, Robust regression model, Partial least squares model, Robust partial least squares model, time series

Volume

29

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

15914

Issue Date

2019-08-01

Receive Date

2020-11-09

Publish Date

2019-08-01

Page Start

160

Page End

194

Print ISSN

1687-3440

Online ISSN

2682-3349

Link

https://mosj.journals.ekb.eg/article_122432.html

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https://mosj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=122432

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4

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,226

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة الدراسات المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://mosj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

نموذج إحصائى لقياس العوامل المؤثرة فى هجرة الکفاءات العلمية المصرية على التنمية الإقتصادية

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023