ABSTRACT
The wheat crop is considered the most important strategic crop in Egypt, as the Egyptian people, especially those with low incomes, depend on it for their daily food. Despite recent efforts to reduce the wheat gap and raise food security rates, by working to increase wheat production, the area of ​​wheat reached about 3.39 million feddans. In 2020, an estimated increase of 14% over 2005. However, the increasing demand as a result of the steady increase in the population and the diversification of the consumption pattern, has exacerbated the gap between production and consumption, and thus the burdens on the state budget increased by increasing the import bill. That is why the research seeks to study the current situation of production and consumption and the size of the gap of wheat, estimating food security indicators of wheat, studying the economic factors affecting the national consumption of wheat.
The results showed that the size of the food gap of wheat increased at a statistically significant annual rate estimated at about 5.7 thousand tons, and at a growth rate of about 5.8% annually. While the wheat self-sufficiency rates are declining at a statistically significant annual rate of 0.01%, and the rate of decline is estimated at 2.5% annually.
By estimating the indicators of the wheat food security factor during the period (2005-2020), it turns out that the size of the strategic stock amounted to about 1257,000 tons, and this stock is sufficient to cover local consumption for about 27 days, which requires the need to provide a strategic stock to achieve higher rates of food security. The food security coefficient of wheat was estimated at 0.16 during the mentioned period. This coefficient indicates the weakness of the food security coefficient index, as it is close to zero. By studying the economic factors affecting the national consumption of wheat, it was found that the most important variables are the quantity of production, the quantity of imports, the subsidy value of wheat, as it is clear that there is a direct relationship between the quantity of national consumption of wheat and each of the quantity of production, the quantity of imports, the value of the subsidy value of wheat. The amount of national consumption of wheat increases by 4.6%, 2%, and 1.1%, respectively, by increasing the quantity of production, the quantity of imports, and the value of subsidies for wheat by 10%.
Recommendations:

Expanding wheat production by increasing the cultivated area and developing high-yield varieties.
Work to direct support to those who are eligible to rationalize consumption and raise food security rates.
Work to rationalize consumption by finding alternatives to wheat.