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COVID-19 in a Nigerian university: Modelling the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 on an average university Campus.

Article

Last updated: 22 Jan 2023

Subjects

-

Tags

Infectious diseases
Medical virology

Abstract

Background: Currently, the world is overwhelmed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by a highly virulent virus that causes influenza-like symptoms. University administrators are confronted with challenges concerning coronavirus preparedness and response for the resumption of safe campus activities. This study is aimed at assisting Nigerian Universities in COVID -19 preparation and response. Methods: We adopted the SEIR deterministic model to appraise the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among University staff and students, and evaluated the breadth of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies required to safely return its community to campus. The model was parameterized to fit the resident on campus situation. The frequencies of viral screening and testing, probabilistic sensitivity analysis of model parameter was explored in this study. Results: Weekly COVID -19 screening reduced the cumulative incidence by 15% and 55.7% among university staff and students respectively. PCR testing delay of 2-,3-,4-and 7 days reduced overall semester incidence by 65.7%, 56.9%, 50.8% and 34.4% among students; 23.5%, 22.8%, 20.5% and 16.9% among university staff. Conclusion: Our simulations have revealed that extensive testing of on-campus community population may be required to curb disease explosion. While cases of hospitalization and deaths may occur, community import of COVID -19 can be curtailed with effective testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine. A cost-effective solution such as pool testing was proposed in this study to decrease the overall resources needed for comprehensive on-campus testing.

DOI

10.21608/mid.2020.44314.1066

Keywords

COVID-19, rRT-PCR, Contact tracing, Modelling

Authors

First Name

Shuaibu

Last Name

Adeiza

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Pharmaceutical Microbiology, Faculty of Pharmaceutical sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria

Email

suleykestler2@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-9293-2600

First Name

Gazali

Last Name

Shuaibu

MiddleName

Mohammed

Affiliation

3Department of Microbiology, Faculty of sciences, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria.

Email

shuaibuozovehe@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-9799-6347

First Name

Umar

Last Name

Abdulraheem

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Mathematics, Faculty of sciences, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria

Email

umarraheem100@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

0000-0001-8330-0890

First Name

Abdulmalik

Last Name

Shuaibu

MiddleName

Bello

Affiliation

Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Faculty of Veterinary medicine, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Sokoto, Nigeria.

Email

abdulmalik.shuaibu@udusok.edu.ng

City

-

Orcid

0000-0001-7684-2472

Volume

1

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

16205

Issue Date

2020-11-01

Receive Date

2020-09-02

Publish Date

2020-11-01

Page Start

140

Page End

152

Print ISSN

2682-4132

Online ISSN

2682-4140

Link

https://mid.journals.ekb.eg/article_117787.html

Detail API

https://mid.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=117787

Order

12

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,157

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Microbes and Infectious Diseases

Publication Link

https://mid.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

-

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023