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271639

EMPIRICAL MODELING FOR REPORTED CASES AND DEATHS OF COVID-19 IN EGYPT DURING THE ACCELERATED SPREAD AND PREDICTION OF THE DELAYED PHASE

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Last updated: 25 Dec 2024

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Abstract

This is a newly developed conceivable mathematical model for analyzing the spreading behavior of COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic in Egypt. We emphasized the impact of detection and control measures in flattening the spread of disease. This knowledge of the early spread dynamics of infection and assessing the efficiency of control measures is critical for reviewing and evaluating the potential for sustained transmission to occur during the coming waves. This proposed empirical model for the accelerated spread phase is based on non-linear regression technique, interpolations, tangents, least-square, and optimization methods to delimit different phases of the pandemic and predict the delayed phase. We prove that our model is mathematically consistent and present various simulation results using the best-estimated parameter value. The model can be easily updated when restrictions and other issues become changed. These simulation results may guide the local authorities to make timely right decisions.

DOI

10.21608/bfsa.2022.271639

Keywords

Accelerated spread, Causal correlation, COVID-19, Delayed spread, Empirical modeling, mortality

Authors

First Name

Essam

Last Name

Kotb

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Biology, College of Science, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam 31441, Saudi Arabia- Basic & Applied Scientific Research Center, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam 31441, Saudi Arabia.

Email

ekghareeb@iau.edu.sa

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Noureddine

Last Name

Ouerfelli

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Chemistry, College of Science, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam 31441, Saudi Arabia.

Email

nouerfelli@iau.edu.sa

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Naouel

Last Name

Zrelli

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

LAMSIN, Laboratoire de Modélisation Mathématique et Numérique dans les Sciences de l'Ingénieur, Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tunis, B.P. 37, 1002 Tunis, Tunisie.

Email

naouel.zrelli@enit.rnu.tn

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Khaoula

Last Name

Briki

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Basic & Applied Scientific Research Center, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam 31441, Saudi Arabia- Department of Mathematics, College of Science, Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, P.O. Box 1982, Dammam 31441, Saudi Arabia.

Email

kabriki@iau.edu.sa

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Asmaa

Last Name

Ahmed

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce, Al-Azhar University (Girls' Branch), Nasr City, P.N.Box: 11884, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

asmaaahmed.2055@azhar.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohammed

Last Name

Medhat

MiddleName

A.

Affiliation

Tropical Medicine and Gastroenterology Department, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt.

Email

mohammed.medhat@aun.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Hassan

Last Name

Elsayed

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Microbial Biotechnology Department, Biotechnology Research Institute, National Research Centre, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt.

Email

hassanaboelnor@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Mohamed

Last Name

El-Kassas

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Endemic Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Helwan University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

45

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

37882

Issue Date

2022-12-01

Receive Date

2022-01-05

Publish Date

2022-12-01

Page Start

775

Page End

788

Print ISSN

1110-0052

Online ISSN

3009-7703

Article File

BFSA_Volume 45_Issue 2_Pages 775-788.pdf

PDF . 1.5MB

Link

https://bpsa.journals.ekb.eg/article_271639.html

Detail API

https://bpsa.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=271639

Order

271,639

Type

Original Article

Type Code

1,096

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Bulletin of Pharmaceutical Sciences Assiut University

Publication Link

https://bpsa.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

EMPIRICAL MODELING FOR REPORTED CASES AND DEATHS OF COVID-19 IN EGYPT DURING THE ACCELERATED SPREAD AND PREDICTION OF THE DELAYED PHASE

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Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023