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The Improvement of Forecasting Accuracy Egyption Tourism Demand Using Combining Statistical and Judgmental Forecasts

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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Abstract

study aims to examine methods for improving the accuracy of experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand of the forecasts we evaluate how accurately annual tourism arrival data in Egypt can be forecast using a combined method. Over the forecasting period of 2018 -2022, the combined forecasts outperform the baseline forecasts produced by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL- ECM) models, demonstrating the value of implementing this integration. Various error measures (APE), (MAPE), and (RMSPE) are used to determine forecasting effectiveness, and statistical tests were performed to evaluate forecast accuracy using the Delphi method and a range of expert judgment adjustments to integrate statistical forecasts and expert judgments. Several forecasting models are compared to evaluate the performance of the combined method by examining the statistical and judgmentally adjusted forecasts with regression analysis. Based on the hypothesis tests, it was concluded that the Delphi panel adjustments increased forecast accuracy. There are several advantages to integrating expert judgments into statistical forecasts.

DOI

10.21608/jsst.2022.106213.1350

Keywords

Statistical Forecasts, Judgmental Forecasts, Integrating, ARDL- ECM, Delphi method

Authors

First Name

غزة

Last Name

الشحات

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

کلية تجارة بورسعيد

Email

azza2611028@com.psu.edu.eg

City

بورسعيد

Orcid

-

Volume

23

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

28777

Issue Date

2022-01-01

Receive Date

2021-11-15

Publish Date

2022-01-01

Page Start

132

Page End

165

Print ISSN

2090-5327

Online ISSN

2682-3543

Link

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/article_213836.html

Detail API

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=213836

Order

5

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

1,048

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

مجلة البحوث المالية والتجارية

Publication Link

https://jsst.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

The Improvement of Forecasting Accuracy Egyption Tourism Demand Using Combining Statistical and Judgmental Forecasts

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023