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119668

أثر سعر الصرف الحقيقي الفعال على البطالة في مصر: دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة ARDL للفترة (1983- 2018)

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Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

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المحاسبة

Abstract

The study aims to measure the effect of the real effective exchange rate on unemployment in Egypt for the period (1983-2018) and also to determine whether the relationship is direct or inverse, due to the existence of a dispute between studies on this relationship. Hence, the study hypothesis is that there is a negative relationship in the long and short run between the effective real exchange rate and unemployment in Egypt. The study used in the previous hypothesis test the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for Cointegration and the bound test to test for a long-run relationship because it was found that the dependent variable, which is unemployment, stationary at the first difference I(1), and that all independent variables are stationary at the level I(0), Then, measure the short-run relationships using the ARDL-ECM model. The study concluded that the effective real exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in the long term in Egypt. There is also a negative and significant relationship between unemployment, growth, real interest rate and fixed capital growth rate, while the effect of economic openness on unemployment was positive and significant. That is, The results proved the validity of the study hypothesis completely.

DOI

10.21608/jces.2020.119668

Keywords

Real Effective Exchange Rate ــ unemployment ــ ARDEL Model ــ Bound test ــ ARDL, ECM ــ Wald test

Authors

First Name

حسني

Last Name

ابراهيم عبد الواحد

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Affiliation

مدرس الاقتصاد بالمعهد العالى للعلوم الإدارية – 6 أکتوبر

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Volume

11

Article Issue

العدد الثالث الجزء الاول

Related Issue

17923

Issue Date

2020-10-01

Receive Date

2020-10-19

Publish Date

2020-10-01

Page Start

220

Page End

257

Print ISSN

2090-3782

Link

https://jces.journals.ekb.eg/article_119668.html

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https://jces.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=119668

Order

5

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

986

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للدراسات التجارية والبيئية

Publication Link

https://jces.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

أثر سعر الصرف الحقيقي الفعال على البطالة في مصر: دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة ARDL للفترة (1983- 2018)

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023