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169612

Principal Component Regression for Egyptian Stock Market Prediction

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Artificial intelligence
Communication Technology

Abstract

Financial markets are very rich with information and variables. In contradiction to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, much research has been conducted to predict asset prices with promising accuracy. However, ensuring good models requires extracting important information from given data sets. This paper investigates the main Egyptian Stock Exchange index (EGX 30) and constructs some alternative portfolios by identifying important linear combinations of EGX 30 constituents. This could be approached by a dimensionality reduction technique, which is performed following the principal components analysis (PCA). The results show that the first three Principal Components (PCs) could summarize 83% of data variability. Each one of the first three PCs highlights the most contributed individual stocks. These three PCs provide investors with alternative portfolios. Moreover, a Principal Component Regression (PCR) model is built to predict the future behavior of the EGX 30. The performance of the obtained PCR model is very well. This result is reached by comparing observed values of EGX 30 with the predicted ones (R-squared estimated as 0.98).

DOI

10.21608/ijimct.2021.169612

Keywords

dimensionality reduction, EGX 30, principal component regression, multiple imputation

Authors

First Name

Heba

Last Name

Ezzat

MiddleName

M.

Affiliation

Department of Socio-Computing, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

hebaezzat@cu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0002-0786-8000

Volume

3

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

21088

Issue Date

2021-05-01

Receive Date

2021-04-24

Publish Date

2021-05-01

Page Start

23

Page End

39

Print ISSN

2682-2105

Online ISSN

2682-2881

Link

https://ijimct.journals.ekb.eg/article_169612.html

Detail API

https://ijimct.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=169612

Order

2

Type

Original Article

Type Code

975

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

The International Journal of Informatics, Media and Communication Technology

Publication Link

https://ijimct.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Principal Component Regression for Egyptian Stock Market Prediction

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023