Wheat yellow rust (stripe rust) caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici, is one of the most damaging diseases of wheat worldwide. This work aimed to evaluate one hundred and fifty-six commercial wheat fields to yellow rust epidemics in Gharbia province during the 2019 to 2021 seasons. Also, an attempt to have a predictive weather model for wheat yellow rust. Temperature, relative humidity, and rain variables were obtained from the regional climate model imeto2 (http//meto.at/farmview/) as well as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment's (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (NASA/GEWEX SRB) during the infection period from January to March. The high disease epidemic linked to precipitation and number of precipitation days combined with the minimum temperatures (6−8°C) and relative humidity (RH) at least 60%. Levels of yellow rust severity varied according to the year, and wheat variety. Gemmeiza-11, Sids-12 Misr-1, and Misr-2 were the most susceptible varieties during the evaluation period. The loss % ranged between 36.00, 40.00 %(Gemmeiza-11); 36.00, 37.25% (Sids-12); 25.00, 33.33% (Misr1) and 21.21, 24.84% (Misr-2) in the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons, respectively compared to the obtained grain yield in 2021 season.