Beta
267233

An Econometric Study for the Current and Future Situation of Broad-Beans in Egypt تحليل اقتصادى قياسي للوضع الراهن والمستقبلي لمحصول الفول البلدي فى مصر

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economics

Abstract

This Paper aims to analyze the current and future situation of Broad-Beans in Egypt. It starts with studying cultivated area and its distribution to the regions, the ratio of old and new lands, the productivity of feddan, the volume of both production and consumption, exports and imports, net trade, the gap, and the per capita are studded. Then it focuses on the monetary production function, and the efficiency of irrigation water. In the second section, the Box-Jenkins method applied to make forecasting to indicators of the studded crop until 2030. The unit root test was performed using the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and several models were compared on the basis of four criteria: the largest value of the determination coefficient, and the lowest value of the standard error, the lowest value of the Akaike information criterion(AIC), and the lowest value for the Schwarz information criterion(SIC). The ARIMA models that were selected for forecasting are: ARIMA(0,1,1) for area, ARIMA(2,2,3) for consumption, and ARIMA(0, 1,1) for production, ARIMA(0,1,3) for per capita, ARIMA(0,1,2) for gap, ARIMA(0,1,1) for exports, ARIMA(1,1,1) For imports. Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) were studied to confirm the stationarity. In the end, the Broad-Beans indicators were Forecasted until 2030, and the averages for these indicators were about 75,986 Feddan for area decreasing by 34% compared to the previous decade, about 86 thousand tons of production decreasing by 36%, about 1771 thousand tons for consumption increasing by 24%, about 6.26 kg/person/year for per capita decreasing by 1%, about 335 thousand tons for the gap increasing by 314%, about 27 thousand tons for exports increasing by 73%, and  about 281 thousand tons for imports increasing by 205%.

DOI

10.21608/sjas.2022.158793.1248

Keywords

Broad Beans road Beans, Box-jenkins method, ARIMA, Forecasting using Time Series

Authors

First Name

Mahmoud

Last Name

Arafa

MiddleName

Abdeltawab

Affiliation

Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agric., Cairo Un., Giza, Egypt

Email

mahmoudara@gmail.com

City

Giza

Orcid

-

Volume

4

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

36486

Issue Date

2022-09-01

Receive Date

2022-08-27

Publish Date

2022-09-01

Page Start

75

Page End

96

Print ISSN

2535-1796

Online ISSN

2535-180X

Link

https://sjas.journals.ekb.eg/article_267233.html

Detail API

https://sjas.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=267233

Order

7

Type

Original Article

Type Code

916

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Scientific Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://sjas.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

An Econometric Study for the Current and Future Situation of Broad-Beans in Egypt تحليل اقتصادى قياسي للوضع الراهن والمستقبلي لمحصول الفول البلدي فى مصر

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023