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39498

The effect of exchange rate movements on trade balance performance in Egypt: Is there a J-curve phenomenon?

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Last updated: 22 Jan 2023

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Abstract

This study targets to test the J-curve hypothesis in Egypt. The dynamics of the bilateral trade balance with Egypt's main eight trading partners is investigated. The findings of the paper investigate that the J-curve hypothesis does not hold in case of Egypt, especially in the long-term. This is consistent with most of the previous studies tested the same hypothesis in developing countries. The conclusion to policy makers can be presented in two main points. First, the negative impact of the depreciation of the pound against the US dollar was confirmed in the short term. This requires action to mitigate these effects, especially for the poor. Second, it is not possible to rely only on devaluing the Egyptian pound to improve the long-term balance of trade; both of domestic production and export development policies should be developed to help improve the balance of trade as a result of the devaluation of the pound.       The effect of exchange rate movements on trade balance performance in Egypt: Is there a
J-curve phenomenon?
 

DOI

10.21608/jsec.2018.39498

Keywords

: Currency depreciation, exchange rate in Egypt J-Curve, terms-of-trade, trade balance

Authors

First Name

Ahmed

Last Name

Mohamed Ezzat

MiddleName

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Affiliation

College of International Transport & Logistics, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport – Cairo - Egypt

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Volume

48

Article Issue

4

Related Issue

6321

Issue Date

2018-12-01

Receive Date

2018-09-15

Publish Date

2018-12-01

Page Start

659

Page End

692

Print ISSN

2636-2562

Link

https://jsec.journals.ekb.eg/article_39498.html

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https://jsec.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=39498

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المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

914

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية للإقتصاد و التجارة

Publication Link

https://jsec.journals.ekb.eg/

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023