Crop simulation models have improved steadily over the past three decades
aided by the rapid improvement of computer technology. Some of these crop models
are currently used to study the impact of climatic change on crop productivity under
different environment conditions . One of these models is DSSAT (Decision Support
System for Agrotechnology Transfer) which used to evaluate and predict the yield of
several crops (One of these crops is wheat) under various environmental conditions
such as weather, soil, irrigation and fertilizers. Also select crop cultivar(s) through the
simulation procedure for different environments. This could be helping the decision-
makers to put the agricultural strategies with different scenarios. In this study, climate
data for current conditions and for two future scenarios, in the form of monthly and
daily values, were used to evaluate crop growth using DSSAT, for 2040. These same
climate data were then manipulated by changing their standard deviations to produce
increased or decreased climate variability scenarios. The potential impact of climatic
change on wheat production was evaluated by simulation the predicted data under the
current condition and the predicted data by the year 2040. Starting with the
assumption of global climate change by 2040, this research concentrates on
assessing haw agriculture in the North West Coasl of Egypt will adapt to such climate
change. Eleven wheat varieilies were evaluated under rainfed condition at different
growth stages (at Maryot Experimental Station North West Coast of Egypt) and
analyzed by DSSAT model to get the predicted yield. The actual field experiments
data showed that there were significantly differences between the wheat varieties in
most of the morpho-physiological characteristics, yield and yield components The
current results showed that the grain yield per hectare of Gemiza 7 cultivar out-
weighed significantly those of the other cultivars followed by Giza 164. Whereas.
Sakha 93 produced the highest value of the predicted grain yield by the year 2040
Results were evaluated across eleven different wneat varieties and climate scenarios
(control or current conditions, mean changes, variance changes, mean and variance
changes) While the overall mean increases by the year 2040 result in increased
yields due to the positive effect of duplication in CO, and it s effect on the wheat crop
as a C3 plant. The framework of this study therefore attempts to fill the gaps of
knowledge and methodology between production of climate forecasts and their
practical application to improve decision making by the agricultural sector