Under the free world trade policy and the establishment of World
Trade Organization, Promotion of exports is faced by a sharp competition in
productivity, Quality and price. So, Imports should be rationalized and exports
have a competitive advantage should be emphasized. EI-Masry, Mona Mahmoud The research problem can be formulated in the following assumption:
- This agreement may negatively or positively affects the economics of the
developing countries, especially the net importers of food, as Egypt. - Abolishment of subsidy and custom barriers may raise the import prices. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze the
agreement effects on Wheat imports and Rice exports as well as the current
situation of the Egyptian agricultural foreign trade. Also, gain and loss in
social welfare from imported and exported items under the global system. From the study, it has been revealed in a real value of agricultural
exports increased in a statistically significant rate of about L. E 17 million
versus about L.E 9.4 million during the period (1989-1998). Value of Egyptian
rice exports significantly increased in about L.E 5.9 million in real price during
the same period. The geographical allocation of rice exports and wheat
imports has been studied. Also, three econometric models have been applied to identify the
economic effects of liberalization world trade on rice exports and wheat
imports. Changes and projections of production, agricultural price, local .
consumption, rice export surplus, and heat import deficit have been estimated
under the different scenarios based on change in protection and taxation
rates and on fixation of rice exports will be increased and consequently the
social welfare gains amounted to $ 52.08 thousand on average during the
period (1996-1998). These gains have been estimated in about $ 190.3
thousand in 2004.Also, it is expected that Egyptian wheat imports will
increase to about 7227.8, 7494 thousand metric ton in 2002, 2005
respectively. The social loss, resulting from increased wheat imports and
world price, amounted to $ 172.4, 190.3 million on average during the period
(1996- 1998) and 2004 respectively. From the preceding results, it has been concluded that social welfare
gain will be resulted from increasing the Egyptian exports (rice for instance).
But social welfare loss will be resulted from increasing imports due to the
increasing world prices and abolishment of protection. The following recommendations have been reached: - (1) Increasing the protection of exported items and opening new markets to
maximize the social welfare. (2) Transformation period to perfect trade liberalization should be fully
utilized. (3) Tending to increase the self- sufficiency rates for CiOpS that can be
planted and expanded adoption of high technology, especially wheat,
red meat, oils and other agricultural imports. (4) Estimating the social welfare gains and loss resulting from applying the
agreement to exports and imports to identify the gap between gain and
loss. (5) Creating new markets for Egyptian exports and imports. These markets
should be more compatible with Egyptian conditions.