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223384

Measuring the Wheat Price Volatility in Global Commodity Market: GARCH Family Models

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Last updated: 24 Dec 2024

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Abstract

Food price volatility is considered a global problem affecting many poor and rich countries, severely impacting developing countries. So, understanding the volatility pattern is essential for policymakers to take global and local actions to reduce food price spikes, manage price trends, and protect vulnerable households. This study aims to accurately measure wheat price volatility in the global market to determine its pattern and help policymakers make more informed decisions. A monthly series of 719 observations spanning from January 1960 to December 2019 was used to model the global wheat price volatility. Symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models were used to measure the price volatility. Based on model selection criteria, Asymmetric EGARCH (1,1) model proves to be fit. The results show that positive shocks have a more significant effect on volatility than negative shocks, which implies that policymakers react differently when making decisions. Moreover, these findings suggest that long–term contracts and sustainable investments in improving the wheat value chain will help the domestic market hedge against the risks of global price volatility.

DOI

10.21608/jaess.2022.118255.1022

Keywords

GARCH Models, Wheat, and Volatility

Authors

First Name

Fatma

Last Name

Hefnawy

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Egypt.

Email

fffhefnawy@gmail.com

City

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Orcid

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First Name

V.

Last Name

Shaker

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University

Email

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City

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Orcid

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Volume

12

Article Issue

12

Related Issue

31415

Issue Date

2021-12-01

Receive Date

2022-03-08

Publish Date

2021-12-01

Page Start

1,205

Page End

1,208

Print ISSN

2090-3634

Online ISSN

2090-3715

Link

https://jaess.journals.ekb.eg/article_223384.html

Detail API

https://jaess.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=223384

Order

19

Type

Original Article

Type Code

884

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences

Publication Link

https://jaess.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Measuring the Wheat Price Volatility in Global Commodity Market: GARCH Family Models

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023