Over the past fifty years, there have been important changes in all the fields.
There are some significant improvements in the agricultural productive sector, but
there was little change in the rate of agricultural exports according to these
improvements. This study deals with what happened in demographical, social,
economical, and agricultural fields during the last fifty years from 1952 to 2002? In
addition to, the main objective of the study is to explain and explore the effect of
demographic and socio-economic factors upon agricultural exports rate during the
same period.
A compatible equation of Alessio and Bilas (1994) and Hyman (1999)
indicators of country economic has played an important theoretical role in the current
study. Secondary data from different sources are used. The statistical methods used
in this study are time series analysis, arithmetical means, correlation analysis, and
path analysis.
The results of correlation analysis indicate that birth rate, population increase
rate, marriage rate, and agricultural imports rate were significant and negatively
associated with agricultural exports rate. Moreover, the results showed that numbers
of graduates from institutes and universities, agricultural investments rate, total
agricultural wages, total numbers of agricultural employments, and the total cultivated
areas of winter, summer, and horticultural crops were significant and positively related
to the same variable.
The results of path analysis show that the birth rate, population increase
rate, and agricultural imports rate had significant and negatively direct effects on
agricultural exports rate, while agricultural investments rate, total agricultural wages,
and cultivated areas 01' winter, horticultural crops had significant and positively direct
effects on agricultural exports rate. In addition, there was a significant and negatively
indirect effect on agricultural exports rate from population increase rate.
The most important recommendations are: stable birth and death rates that
will be reflected on the population increase rate, increase investments in agricultural
sectors, increase wages in agricultural sectors, and increase the total cultivated areas
of winter, summer, river, horticultural crops by highly productive crops and new
genetically modified offspring.