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101556

WHEAT AND RICE SUPPLY RESPONSE IN EGYPT: A VECTOR OF ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Article

Last updated: 30 Jan 2023

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Abstract

This study aimed at estimating the supply response of harvested areas of wheat and rice in Egypt using secondary data obtained from FAO statistics database during the period of 1972-2012. The presence of unit root and indication of non-stationary time series was tested using augmented dickey test (ADF). The results obtained from Johansen method test of co-integration supported evidence on the long-run equilibrium relationships among variables. Vector error correction model (VECM) was used to estimate long run and short run relationships between harvested areas of wheat and rice and their estimators. The estimators were own price, competing crops prices, and climatic variables like mean of seasonal temperature and precipitation. The results indicated that wheat harvested area is affected significantly and positively by wheat price in the preceding year and negatively by the prices of the competing crops like clover and barley. Rice harvested area is affected significantly and negatively by maize price. The short-run and long-run supply elasticities of wheat and rice are positive and consistent with economic logic. All estimated elasticities were significant and inelastic implying that notably price changes are needed to achieve the desired harvested areas of wheat and rice in Egypt. 

DOI

10.21608/zjar.2016.101556

Keywords

Supply response, elasticity, augmented dickey test, vector error correction model

Authors

First Name

Mohamed A.

Last Name

Alboghdady

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Agric. Econ. Dept., Fac. Agric., Suez Canal Univ., Egypt

Email

mboghd@agr.suez.edu.eg

City

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Orcid

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Volume

43

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

15382

Issue Date

2016-03-01

Receive Date

2016-02-16

Publish Date

2016-03-30

Page Start

687

Page End

696

Print ISSN

1110-0338

Link

https://zjar.journals.ekb.eg/article_101556.html

Detail API

https://zjar.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=101556

Order

24

Type

Original Article

Type Code

842

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Zagazig Journal of Agricultural Research

Publication Link

https://zjar.journals.ekb.eg/

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023