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23578

Simulating and resilience in cotton productivity due to climate change of Sindh, Pakistan

Article

Last updated: 04 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economics, Rural Sociology and Agricultural Extension

Abstract

The present research is to primarily focused on to meet the upcoming dilemma due to rapid shifting in the climate pattern specifically in the south Asian region where most of the under developing countries and they secure their essential part of routine life need that broadly is Agriculture. Secondly, to estimation of dependent variable i.e. most probably the cause of climate change calamity are temperature and precipitation that directly effect on Cotton productivity due to single Pakistan's export earning source and that share was almost 71 percent in the export base products. Similarly to check the resilience and simulating strategies for the concern of climate change in Sindh because the most effected province of Pakistan due to Climate Change since last decade. The results show that the first shock of (VAR) resulted average mean temperature in the period one somewhat increased crop productivity to 07.879032 points whereas; after next shock decreases in productivity to -10.7116 units, in sequence another third shock decreases further productivity up to (negative) -14.8236 units finally remaining shocks were also makes decreasingly going to negative impact on crop productivity. The time series data of last twenty (20) years (1994-95 to 2014-15) has been processed by using Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. VAR study model estimation with lag 2 that Akaike AIC and Schwarz Sc for data using lag 2 is smaller than lag 3, lag 4 and lag 5, so the lower values Akaike AIC 7.058830 and Schwarz Sc 7.491843 for lag 2 make the model more fitted. It was observed comprehensively that the implication of climate change is the key threat to food security and its growth. The predicted values overall crop production and productivity/yield growth rate will be reported as -1.673 and -0.587. Likewise, the parameters of the study viz; β0, β1, β2, β3 describes the dependent study variable and its change per unit for the independent study variables (Production practices) were damaged due to shifting weather trend. In addition projected climate change factors that affecting on cotton indicated that the higher temperature and unexpected shifting of weather activities such as; unwanted rainfall, higher temperature has impact badly on production practices and resultantly the productivity goes into uncertain due to climate change. Overall the 01°C to 01.8°C temperature will be increase and 10% to 18% precipitation will be decrease in the upcoming years up to 2050.

DOI

10.21608/aasj.2018.23578

Keywords

Climate Change, Cotton, productivity, vector autoregression, Sindh

Authors

First Name

M.

Last Name

Joyo

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Economics, Sindh Agriculture University, Tandojam, Pakistan

Email

joyo.mumtaz@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

N.

Last Name

Ram

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Economics, University of Sindh, Jamshoro, Pakistan

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

1

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

4393

Issue Date

2018-04-01

Receive Date

2018-03-01

Publish Date

2018-04-01

Page Start

142

Page End

153

Print ISSN

2535-1680

Online ISSN

2535-1699

Link

https://aasj.journals.ekb.eg/article_23578.html

Detail API

https://aasj.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=23578

Order

11

Type

Research article

Type Code

764

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Archives of Agriculture Sciences Journal

Publication Link

https://aasj.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Simulating and resilience in cotton productivity due to climate change of Sindh, Pakistan

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023