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248509

التنبؤ بإستهلاک الطاقة الشمسية الکهروضوئية في الصين باستخدام عشرة حدوديات

Article

Last updated: 24 Dec 2024

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Abstract

The problem of this paper is to forecast China's consumption of PV-solar energy up to the year 2030. To solve this problem, ten polynomial models are built with degrees from first to tenth.  Computing the model's parameters is based on the actual consumption in the period from 1989 to 2018 and applying the method of least-squares with the aid of  Excel, xuru, and php  software.  A comparison between the ten models is performed based on four measures; the root mean Square Residuals (RMSE), the complement of coefficient of determination (1-R2), the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) , and the absolute difference between the actual and forecasted consumption in 2019.  The best model is the fifth-degree polynomial. This model is tested for sensitivity and significance and it passes the tests. The model is used for forecasting the consumptions for the period from 2019 to 2030. The forecasted consumption is 3788 TWh in the year 2030.

DOI

10.21608/jsfc.2021.248509

Keywords

Forecasting, PV-solar energy, Polynomials

Authors

First Name

منى

Last Name

محمد غريب أحمد

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

باحثة في الإقتصاد بکلية الدراسات الآسيوية العليا – جامعة الزقازيق - مصر

Email

mona_ghareeb@hotmail.com

City

مصر

Orcid

-

First Name

أحمد

Last Name

حمد الله السمان

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

أستاذ دکتور بقسم الإقتصاد – کلية الإقتصاد والعلوم السياسية – جامعة القاهرة – مصر

Email

-

City

مصر

Orcid

-

Volume

25

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

35512

Issue Date

2021-01-01

Receive Date

2020-07-06

Publish Date

2021-01-01

Page Start

158

Page End

177

Print ISSN

2636-3674

Link

https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/article_248509.html

Detail API

https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=248509

Order

12

Type

المقالة الأصلية

Type Code

761

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

المجلة العلمية لقطاع کليات التجارة بجامعة الأزهر

Publication Link

https://jsfc.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

التنبؤ بإستهلاک الطاقة الشمسية الکهروضوئية في الصين باستخدام عشرة حدوديات

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023