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Prediction of Tomato Early Blight Disease Under Climate Change Conditions in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Abstract

Early blight caused by Alternaria solani (Ell. and Mart.) is one of the most important economic diseases, which caused considerable loss in their yield and quality under Egyptian conditions. Aim the research was to study the relationship between climate change and disease severity for prediction in future seasons. Disease severity was recorded for three growing periods i.e. summer (May. to Aug), autumn (Jul. to Oct) and winter (Nov. to Mar.), at three governorates (Behira, Ismailia, and Assuit) during growing seasons 2016/2017-2017/2018. Severity of early blight disease on tomato has been predicted by regression estimated accumulative disease severity values during 2007/2008 to 2015/2016 season and average max and min temperature and humidity through these seasons. Prediction of disease has been formed as Y= b0+b1x1+b2x2+.......... bqxq. Three models were created to describe the severity disease by multiple regressions (MINITABĀ® program). The highest value of early blight disease was recorded through season 2017/2018, while the lowest value was recorded during season 2016/2017. Also, highly disease severity was estimated during summer period compared with autumn and winter growing periods, but through winter growing period was the least severity and moderately severity estimated in the autumn growing period. Influence of environmental conditions on the severity of early blight disease during seasons from 2007/2008 to 2015/2016, in Behira governorate, the highest disease severity was showed in season 2010-2011, and the lowest disease was in season 2012-2013, but in Ismailia governorate, highest disease severity was estimated in season 2010-2011and lowest disease was recorded in season 2013-2014 and in Assuit governorate, the highest value of disease was in season 2010-2011, and the lowest value was in season 2013-2014. For Forecasting, significantly differences noticed between disease severity through 2020/2030, 2030/2040 and 2040/ 2050s seasons compared with 2008/2018s seasons and thier relation with climate change in tested governorates, where severity of tomato early blight disease was icreased from 11.8% during 2008/2018s seasons to 2040/ 2050s seasons 15.4% during at Behira governorate, from 18.8% during 2008/2018s seasons to 2040/ 2050s seasons 36.3% during at Ismailia governorate and from 18.8% during 2008/2018s seasons to 2040/ 2050s seasons 40.4% during at Assuit governorate with slight change in maximum or minimum temperatures and percentage of relative humidity.

DOI

10.21608/ajs.2019.16072.1071

Keywords

Tomato, Early blight disease, Climate Change, Forecasting, GIS

Authors

First Name

Hassan

Last Name

Hassan

MiddleName

Ahmed

Affiliation

Agricultural Meteorology Research Department,Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC),Agricultural Research Center,Giza,Egypt

Email

hassan_clac@yahoo.com

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0002-1084-6291

First Name

Shaker

Last Name

abolmaaty

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Agricultural Meteorology Research, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate, Agricultural Research Center,Giza,Egypt

Email

dr_shakermaaty@yahoo.com

City

Giza

Orcid

-

First Name

Afaf

Last Name

Elmenisy

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Department of Plant Pathology,Faculty of Agriculture,Ain Shams University,Cairo, Egypt

Email

afaf_abdelaziz@yahoo.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Nagy

Last Name

Abdel-Ghafar

MiddleName

Yasin

Affiliation

Department of Plant Disease, Fac. Agric. Ain Sham Univ

Email

elghaffar3339@agr.asu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-3729-3009

Volume

27

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

11200

Issue Date

2019-09-01

Receive Date

2019-08-21

Publish Date

2019-09-01

Page Start

1,985

Page End

1,995

Print ISSN

1110-2675

Online ISSN

2636-3585

Link

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/article_76137.html

Detail API

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=76137

Order

23

Type

Original Article

Type Code

668

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://ajs.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Prediction of Tomato Early Blight Disease Under Climate Change Conditions in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023