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250698

An Analytical Study for the Risk and Uncertainty for Agricultural Production in New Valley Governorate "دراسة تحليلية للمخاطرة واللآيقين للإنتاج الزراعي في محافظة الوادي الجديد"

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

Subjects

-

Tags

Agricultural Economic and Social Sciences

Abstract

The risk has an important effect on the farmer's decisions making toward the farm planning and also affects crops' patterns the effective levels of the risk on agricultural production are different from one region to another because the natural and economic conditions are different. The study used (MOTAD) model to define the best product combination of the suggested crops activities, aiming at the reduction of potential risks and estimating the costs, and comparing it with the present crop pattern, therefore, determining the agricultural crops which are characterized by increased or decrease of risk in the new valley governorate. Therefore, suitable agricultural policies could be made to face the possible increase in risk. The most important results of the study are represented in the potentiality of rationalizing the agricultural water resources with about 6.7% in the new valley governorate, Reviewing the present crop structure through expansion in the cultivated crops which need less water for irrigation and reducing cultivated of crops need high water consumption if the risk factor is taken into consideration, the most potential risk cost is estimated at 218.52 million pounds which represent about 10.6% of the expected income of the agricultural crops in the new valley governorate, there's a possibility to realize the same level of income from the present crop pattern of the new land with less risk potentiality about 5.6%. The study recommends the necessity of following a clear-cut agricultural policy depending on avoiding potential risks before it occurs, as a preventive method adjusting the crop pattern periodically to avoid the agricultural risks after their occurrence as a treatment method through following the agricultural insurance policy done by the state. According to it, the state will compensate the farmers and agricultural producers for any harm or loss done to their products which results in a consequent reduction in their income, this policy is based on the semi-optional system. The study recommends also making wheat, peanut, rice, sesame, red beet, legume crops, some vegetable crops like winter tomatoes, winter marrow, winter peas under the umbrella of compulsory insurance and, beans, clover as green fodders and onion, garlic, summer under the umbrella of optional insurance in addition to the necessity of reviewing these crops periodically every three years in the light of economical and environmental fluctuations and risk.

DOI

10.21608/alexja.2022.145919.1020

Keywords

Risk, crop pattern, linear programming, uncertainty

Authors

First Name

Manal

Last Name

Salah

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt

Email

www.manaal.mohamedelsafty@gmail.com

City

cairo

Orcid

-

Volume

67

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

35752

Issue Date

2022-06-01

Receive Date

2022-06-20

Publish Date

2022-06-01

Page Start

102

Page End

115

Print ISSN

0044-7250

Online ISSN

2535-1931

Link

https://alexja.journals.ekb.eg/article_250698.html

Detail API

https://alexja.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=250698

Order

4

Type

Original Article

Type Code

514

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Alexandria Journal of Agricultural Sciences

Publication Link

https://alexja.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

An Analytical Study for the Risk and Uncertainty for Agricultural Production in New Valley Governorate "دراسة تحليلية للمخاطرة واللآيقين للإنتاج الزراعي في محافظة الوادي الجديد"

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023