87076

Situational Analysis and Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 in Egypt

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Tags

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Abstract

Background: Since its emergence in December 2019, the COVID-19 virus has spread to every continent on earth.  Countries are racing to slow down the spread of the disease. The pandemic is still ongoing and global efforts are marathoning to comprehend the virus biology, epidemiology, natural history and eventually applying the sound control measures promptly.
Objectives: The study was carried out to demonstrate the epidemiological distribution and modeling of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Egypt.
Methods: Secondary data in the situation reports of WHO, Worldometer and Egyptian MoHP Report about the COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt were analysed till April 10, 2020. Wolfram Player 12 software was used for the Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.
Results: The cumulative proportional survival at the end of the epidemic is expected to be 82%. Meanwhile, the transmission rate per infectious individual (β) was 0.09 and the recovery rate (γ) was 0.30. The fraction of infectious individuals is not expected to grow exponentially. The basic reproductive rate (R0) was 0.23 and the duration of infection was 2.62 days
Conclusion and recommendation: As for the available data by April 10th, 2020, Egypt COVID-19 epidemic situation is not frightening. Even though, strengthening all the mitigation efforts to keep the exposure probability, as well as the transmission rate as low as possible is mandatory for containment of the epidemic.

DOI

10.21608/jhiph.2020.87076

Keywords

COVID-19, Egypt, Epidemic SIR model, pandemic

Authors

First Name

Ali

Last Name

Hasab

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Epidemiology, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Email

aliabdelhalim1948@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

-

First Name

Engy

Last Name

El-Ghitany

MiddleName

M.

Affiliation

Department of Tropical Health, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Email

ingy.elghitany@gmail.com

City

-

Orcid

0000-0002-3157-1629

First Name

Nermeen

Last Name

Ahmed

MiddleName

N.

Affiliation

Department of Epidemiology, High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

50

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

12929

Issue Date

2020-04-01

Receive Date

2020-05-05

Publish Date

2020-04-01

Page Start

46

Page End

51

Print ISSN

2357-0601

Online ISSN

2357-061X

Link

https://jhiphalexu.journals.ekb.eg/article_87076.html

Detail API

https://jhiphalexu.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=87076

Order

7

Type

Original Article

Type Code

511

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of High Institute of Public Health

Publication Link

https://jhiphalexu.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

Situational Analysis and Epidemic Modeling of COVID-19 in Egypt

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023