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27758

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN EGYPT USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Article

Last updated: 23 Dec 2024

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-

Tags

Basic Sciences

Abstract

Agriculture is considered as an essential economic driver in Egypt. It is an issue as a local food source, for international trade, the food industry and fiber manufacturing as well as water and land use. The climate change vulnerability of agriculture can be mainly attributed to parameters of the economy, society and the environment. Climate change will affect agricultural crop yields which consequently impact different food security domains, namely access to food, food supplies stability, food utilization and food production and trade. The aim of this research paper is to undertake an assessment of the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop yields and national sufficiency based on real observations and results obtained by previous research in Egypt. Both Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) have been used to generate climate projections up to 2050. Results indicate that climate model performance varies for different regions or processes under consideration; the Model ECHAM5 gives the best matching results to observations compared with other models. Climate change can exacerbate the food security crises that Egypt already faces, and without an urgent and comprehensive set of adaptation measures, Egypt may experience adverse impacts on more than one strategic crop. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Circulation Models, Regional Circulation Models, mathematical computer models, temperature, Egypt.

DOI

10.21608/jes.2016.27758

Authors

First Name

El-Malky,

Last Name

M. G.

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Institute of Environmental Studies & Research, Ain Shams University

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Abdelwahab,

Last Name

M. M.

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Faculty of Science, Cairo University

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Bryant,

Last Name

C.R.

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

University of Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Tantawi,

Last Name

S.

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Cairo, Egypt

Email

-

City

-

Orcid

-

Volume

35

Article Issue

1

Related Issue

4972

Issue Date

2016-09-01

Receive Date

2016-09-24

Publish Date

2016-09-01

Page Start

1

Page End

19

Print ISSN

1110-0826

Online ISSN

2636-3178

Link

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/article_27758.html

Detail API

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=27758

Order

1

Type

Review Article

Type Code

599

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Environmental Science

Publication Link

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN EGYPT USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023