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19792

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER AND SALTS STORAGE IN EL SHEIKH ZUWAID-RAFAH, NORTH SINAI, EGYPT

Article

Last updated: 03 Jan 2025

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Tags

Basic Sciences

Abstract

Identifying and quantifying future climate impacts on water resources has major economic and societal implications, rendering such studies extremely important for water planners. In this research, we integrate the outputs of the general global models GDFL-ESM2M (the suitable one of the three studied models; CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M and EC-EARTH) downscaled by regional climate model (RCA4) under representative concentration pathways RCPs scenarios 8.5, into two hydrological models to provide approximations of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality in El Sheikh Zuwaid-Rafah quaternary aquifer system which is the main source of water in the area. The projected changes of the rising scenario between the periods 1980-2005 and 2050-2075 from the three studied GCMs predicted an increase in the mean of July temperature between 4.2 - 4.8 K (kelvin degree), whereas January temperature was estimated to increase between 1.8 - 5.4 K (kelvin degree). The cumulative annual precipitation was estimated to decrease by a range varied between 30% to 51%. A Simple Bias correction (SBC) technique was implemented to correct the simulated monthly precipitation series of RCA4 (GDFL-ESM2M) over Sinai Peninsula. A three dimensional finite difference flow model (Processing MODFLOW -PM5), and the implemented solute transport model (MT3D) were used to predict the groundwater and the total dissolved solids storage. Results from running the raising scenario RCP 8.5 estimated that by the hydrological year 2074 groundwater recharge would be decreased by 2.73 M.m3, leading with the yearly exploitation to decrease groundwater storage to 11.83 M.m3 and decrease in dissolve salt storage 33.1 M. Kg.

DOI

10.21608/jes.2017.19792

Keywords

Global Climate Models, Regional Climate Model, Bias Correction, Groundwater Flow Model, Salt Transport Model

Authors

First Name

El-Malky,

Last Name

M. G

MiddleName

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Affiliation

Department of Environmental Basic Science, Institute of Environmental Studies and Research, Ain Shams University.

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Sakr,

Last Name

S. A

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

The Groundwater Sector in Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation

Email

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City

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Orcid

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First Name

Dahabiyeh,

Last Name

Mona, H

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Water Authority of Jordan

Email

-

City

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Orcid

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Volume

38

Article Issue

2

Related Issue

4007

Issue Date

2017-06-01

Receive Date

2017-06-01

Publish Date

2017-06-01

Page Start

1

Page End

26

Print ISSN

1110-0826

Online ISSN

2636-3178

Link

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/article_19792.html

Detail API

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=19792

Order

1

Type

Original Article

Type Code

500

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

Journal of Environmental Science

Publication Link

https://jes.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GROUNDWATER AND SALTS STORAGE IN EL SHEIKH ZUWAID-RAFAH, NORTH SINAI, EGYPT

Details

Type

Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023