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254656

Intelligent Model for Enhancing the Bankruptcy Prediction with Imbalanced Data Using Oversampling and CatBoost

Article

Last updated: 22 Jan 2023

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Abstract

Bankruptcy prediction is one of the most significant financial decision-making problems, which prevents financial institutions from sever risks. Most of bankruptcy datasets suffer from imbalanced distribution between output classes, which could lead to misclassification in the prediction results. This research paper presents an efficient bankruptcy prediction model that can handle imbalanced dataset problem by applying Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) as a pre-processing step. It applies ensemble-based machine learning classifier, namely, Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) to classify between active and inactive classes. Moreover, the proposed model reduces the dimensionality of the used dataset to increase predictive performance by using three different feature selection techniques. The proposed model is evaluated across the most popular imbalanced bankrupt dataset, which is the Polish dataset. The obtained results proved the efficiency of the applied model, especially in terms of the accuracy. The accuracies ofthe proposed model in predicting bankruptcy on the Polish five years datasets are 98%, 98%, 97%, 97% and 95%, respectively.

DOI

10.21608/ijicis.2022.105654.1138

Keywords

Bankruptcy prediction, Imbalanced dataset, Machine Learning, CatBoost, classification

Authors

First Name

Samar

Last Name

Aly

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Computer Science Department, Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

samar.aly@cis.asu.edu.eg

City

Cairo

Orcid

0000-0002-2093-1211

First Name

Marco

Last Name

Alfonse

MiddleName

-

Affiliation

Computer Science Department, Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt

Email

marco_alfonse@cis.asu.edu.eg

City

cairo

Orcid

0000-0003-0722-3218

First Name

Abdel-Badeeh

Last Name

Salem

MiddleName

M.

Affiliation

Computer Sciece Department, Faculty of Computer and Information Sciences, Ain Shams University

Email

absalem@cis.asu.edu.eg

City

-

Orcid

0000-0001-5013-4339

Volume

22

Article Issue

3

Related Issue

36337

Issue Date

2022-08-01

Receive Date

2021-11-12

Publish Date

2022-08-01

Page Start

92

Page End

108

Print ISSN

1687-109X

Online ISSN

2535-1710

Link

https://ijicis.journals.ekb.eg/article_254656.html

Detail API

https://ijicis.journals.ekb.eg/service?article_code=254656

Order

20

Type

Original Article

Type Code

494

Publication Type

Journal

Publication Title

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Information Sciences

Publication Link

https://ijicis.journals.ekb.eg/

MainTitle

-

Details

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Article

Created At

22 Jan 2023